Confidence in Reliability
Speaker: Chris Jackson
Reliability is a measure of your product or system. Confidence is a measure of you. But we often forget this. We often subject our new product, system or service to test after test until it reaches this thing called ‘required statistical confidence.’ But this is often an illusion. Which is great! Because if statistical confidence is often not ‘real’ confidence, then we don’t always have to resort to statistics to get confidence. In fact, those of us who exclusively rely on statistics are usually those who lack confidence in the product, system or service and need a security blanket to make them feel OK. This webinar talks about confidence from the perspective of the ‘process owner.’ The design team lead. The CTO. The junior engineer. And how you can get a much healthier version of confidence through the way we design and produce our ‘things’ so that when it comes time to test … we are (justifiably) supremely confident that we will absolutely dominate whatever statistical testing hurdle can be thrown our way. And this sometimes means we don’t need to deal with statistics at all!
This Accendo Reliability webinar was originally broadcast on 26 July 2022.
The audio track is now an Accendo Reliability Webinar Series podcast episode. View the episode show notes to listen or subscribe to the podcast.
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Hey Chris, can you show me how you calculated $0.32 for expected profit on page 11 of the confident pdf download?
Christopher Jackson says
Mike, If you look at the top of page 11, you can see a histogram of the expected profits. That is based on the 1 000 000 MCMC simulations. If you simply average the profit for all those 1 000 000 MCMC simulations, you get $ 0.32. Hope this helps!