How to Estimate the Number of Failures Next Month
Let’s say you have shipped 1,000 products to your customer on January 1st. All are immediately placed into service. And each month since you have received a few product returns, what we are going to call failures. We also have fitted the data to a Weibull distribution. Then in May, your boss asks you to estimate how many failures to expect in June.
This is a simple example as we’re not shipping units every month, nor changing the product design or assembly process. We also have worked out the fitted Weibull parameters already. That leaves the calculation of how many failures we should expect over the next month. [Read more…]