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Home » ARA

by Steven Wachs Leave a Comment

Module 11: Repairable Systems Analysis

Module 11 Introduction

Lesson M11-00

So far in this course we have been dealing with non-repairable systems where we model the time to the (first) failure.  Repairable systems analysis is concerned with understanding and modeling the time between failures (over time).  The terminology and models are different than the non-repairable case.  In this module we provide an overview of analysis of repairable systems.  

Reliability Reference Textbook – Section 11

by Steven Wachs Leave a Comment

Module 10: Analysis of Binary Response Data

Module 10 Introduction

Lesson M10-00

Duration: 3 minutes

This module covers modeling for summarized data resulting from pass/fail (binary) assessments.  That is, the unit either fails or doesn’t fail when exposed to some stress for a specified period of time.  In these problems similar methods are used, but often the probability of survival or failure is estimated as a function of stress level rather than time.  

by Steven Wachs Leave a Comment

Module 9: Stress Strength Analysis

Module 9 Introduction

Lesson M09-00

Duration: 5 minutes

This module introduces a method of quantifying risk by calculating failure probabilities based on a characterization of a stress distribution and a strength distribution.  A failure occurs when a unit randomly encounters a stress that exceeds its inherent strength.  The theory for normally distributed distributions is discussed and an example is worked through.  We also discuss the option of using simulation to estimate failure probabilities as well as Reliasoft software. This is especially useful when either the stress or strength distribution is not well described by the normal model.

by Steven Wachs Leave a Comment

Module 8: Accelerated Life Testing

Module 8 Introduction

Lesson M08-00

Duration: 8 minutes

This module covers the planning and analysis of Accelerated Life Tests (ALT).  ALT is a useful methodology for obtaining failure information in less time than it takes for tests performed at normal use conditions.  Quantitative ALTs allow the estimation of reliability statistics at normal use conditions based on failures observed at various stress conditions.  While more complex than regular reliability tests, they can yield useful information in significantly less time.  

by Steven Wachs Leave a Comment

Module 7: Reliability Test Planning

Module 7 Introduction

Lesson M07-00

Duration: 6 minutes

Reliability testing is a key component for ensuring that Reliability targets are achieved.  Planning for reliability tests is important to ensure that the results are likely to be useful.  In this module, we look at planning for both reliability estimation tests and reliability demonstration tests.  Essentially, we must test enough units for long enough to be able to adequately estimate reliability or demonstrate that targets are met.

by Steven Wachs Leave a Comment

Module 6: Analysis of Field Data — Warranty Forecasting

Module 6 Introduction

Lesson M06-00

Duration: 6 minutes

Reliability Reference Textbook – Section 13, Pages 2-11

The models developed to analyze time-to-failure data may be used to develop forecasts of the number of failures that may be expected over time.  This is useful for estimating warranty costs, estimating spare part requirements, and reacting to emerging field concerns.  In this module, we learn how to use conditional failure probability to predict the number of failures during the forecast period. 

by Steven Wachs Leave a Comment

Module 5: Introduction to Reliability of Systems

Module 5 Introduction

Lesson M05-00

Duration: 8 minutes

Reliability Reference Textbook – Section 4

In Module 5, we extend the estimation of component reliability to the reliability estimation of a system composed of multiple components.  The system reliability depends both on the component reliabilities as well as their configuration.  Redundant components allow the system reliability to achieve levels that exceed the component reliabilities.  We explore the basic series and parallel structures as well as k-out-of-n parallel systems.  We also introduce more complex systems and various aspects of system reliability including reliability importance and reliability allocation.

by Steven Wachs Leave a Comment

Module 4: Estimation of Reliability Metrics

Module 4 Introduction

Lesson M04-00

Duration: 5 minutes

Reliability Reference Textbook – Sections 6,7

This module is the core of life data analysis.  We start by providing an overview of the common methods for estimating the distribution parameters (e.g. Maximum Likelihood Estimation) and provide guidance for choosing a method.  Since quantifying uncertainty in our estimates is critical, we review the use of confidence intervals (or bounds) for this purpose.  Applying the concepts introduced previously, we learn how to utilize selected distributions to estimate reliability statistics of interest.  Treatment of censored data and multiple failure modes follow.  We also look at comparing multiple groups with respect to overall reliability performance.  Finally, we briefly look at nonparametric estimation which does not require any distribution assumption.  

by Steven Wachs Leave a Comment

Module 3: Assessing & Selecting Models

Module 3 Introduction

Lesson M03-00

Duration: 6 minutes

Reliability Reference Textbook – Section 5

Module 3 focuses on how we determine appropriate models for describing the time-to-failure data.  We introduce Probability plots and goodness-of-fit statistics that assist in determining which distributions may provide a good fit to the data.  We also learn how to handle censoring and multiple failure modes when attempting to find reasonable models for the data. 

by Steven Wachs Leave a Comment

Course Introduction

The course format is voice-over slides along with a ‘live’ view of Steven showing how to use Weibull++ with examples and when reviewing exercise solutions.

The course includes the recorded presentations, a Participant Guide (copies of the slides), a Supplemental Textbook, and a Reliasoft file that includes the datasets for examples and exercises. You can download the guide, textbook, and Reliasoft files in the third lesson of the Course Introduction module. You may also view the guide and textbook within that lesson online.

The course does include some statistical background and theory, yet the emphasis is on applying reliability analysis methods using Reliasoft Weibull++. We will examine the data setup, analysis, and interpretation over the course of the full course.

Use the course menu to navigate to the first lesson.

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