The Kaplan-Meier estimator is the maximum likelihood, nonparametric reliability estimator for censored, grouped lifetime data. It’s traditional. It’s in statistical software. Greenwood’s variance formula is well known. Could Kaplan-Meier be improved: smaller variance, better actuarial forecasts, seasonality, separate cohort variability from reliability? Could you estimate reliability without life data and preserve privacy?
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Where’s Our Next Shock Coming From?
Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)
The Coronavirus pandemic (COVID19) continues to spread throughout the world despite the best efforts of governments and the medical community. With no vaccine becoming available in the near term and perhaps even in the long term we are faced with growing uncertainty. It seems that ever since the emergence of COVID19 that conflicting advice, information and guidance has exacerbated the situation and created a lack of trust on the part of the public on what measures to take. Wear a mask.
Don’t wear a mask. Social distance. Don’t social distance. The only advice that seems trustworthy is “Wash your hands”; and, that is something that we should do regardless of the pandemic – it’s good common sense. [Read more…]