
How to distinguish a renewal process from a “generalized” renewal process? Compare observed monthly returns vs. actuarial returns forecasts using actuarial return rate estimates of TTFF and TBF (Time To First Failure and Time Between Failures). A geophysicist masquerading as an Apple reliability engineer said, “It’s too hard to figure out the probability that a return came from a computer made in an earlier year.” It’s harder if returns could be second, third, or???
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