CERM® Risk Insights

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Video Killed the Radio Star…went the 1979 music video byThe Buggles.  MTV used this as their first ever video in 1981, but despite the prophecy and MTV’s 40 ongoing years, radio stars aren’t dead.  Radio revolutionised popular music, vinyl discs gave us today’s disc jockeys but even though technology evolves it demonstrates that the fittest will survive and not everything will be killed.

Compact cassette started to challenge vinyl in 1963.  With the emergence of CDs in the mid ‘80’s, tapes eventually became old-hat.  CDs were ousted by flash drives and today ubiquitous access to downloads overshadow almost everything…but vinyl and tapes aren’t altogether dead and buried.  People can be branded dinosaurs but sometimes they are just nostalgic; the odd scratch can make music more of a memorable memory…as does listening to cricket or baseball or horse-racing on the radio!

But it’s not just music that’s been influenced by technology.  Meetings have also been affected and, with the advent of COVID more and more of us are being exposed to on-line meetings and, of course presentations.  But how effective are some presentations in blending audiovisual media, the spoken word and that most important ingredient, people.

Guest Post by Daniel Burrus (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The ability of machines to communicate—and their increasing intelligence—is an exponentially accelerating trend spanning many industries. This technology trend is not slowing down in any way, and the more it is adopted, the more it will continue to accelerate, transforming our personal, professional, and social lives.

How Tech Can Turn Doctors into Clerical Workers
Title of New York Times Article

I bounced the above article among several of my doc buddies. The conversation went like: “You spent 10 years going to med school. Now, you push paper. And, BTW: you may be replaced by a robot. Huh. Yeah. Well. ….”

Not good for one of the most respected professions. But, an undisputable sign of concern among one of the most lucrative and respected professions during the COVID pandemic. It’s all about medical disruption.

Guest Post by Bill Pomfret (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Evacuation management is a necessary element of safety planning for oil and gas operations. It is critical to be prepared to evacuate personnel quickly and safely in the event of an emergency, as every second counts when lives are on the line. Evacuation drills and preparation exercises can be disruptive and time-consuming.

However, the overhead costs and lost productivity expended in preparation for emergency scenarios have become accepted as unavoidable costs of doing business. That’s because until now, there hasn’t been an efficient way to manage and improve evacuation drills while still adequately preparing team members for real emergencies. [Read more…]

Because of the nature of Moore’s law, anything that an extremely clever graphics programmer can do at one point can be replicated by a merely competent programmer some number of years later.
John Carmack – Software Engineer

A number of years ago, several of us at Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE) wondered what are the people  implications of what is commonly called Moore’s Law. The 2020 edition of this book (pre-COVID) focused on AI and technology disruption.

Story: Gordon Moore was one of the founders of Intel Corporation. Moore’s Law states the number of transistors that can fit into a computer chip doubles every 18 months to two years. Moore’s Law expanded to include any tech area where the rate of change doubles in two years or costs half as much.

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Organisations are systems that consist of sub-systems like sales and production. Change impacts the organisational system and subsystems in different ways and speeds – sales may react quickly to the changing external environment, but production may take time to change the process. Unfortunately, people are the hardest to change.

When organisational subsystems change at different speeds caused by external changes, it creates gaps or cracks in the system. This is where the system gets disintegrated.

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

A project controls colleague of mine recently wrote:

“Really, I never had to deal with delivery directors / managers who did not understand or appreciate the effort which goes behind a digital data fed dashboard”

Sarcasm, according to Oscar Wilde, may be the lowest from of wit but it’s the highest form of intelligence.  While being humorous at the expense of those who demand dashboards it’s a sad truth that most demanders have no idea as to the effort required in producing a dashboard.  For them dashboards can be instantly tailored to any whims or fancies at the flick of a switch or the stroke of a key on a keyboard. 

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

“Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right. Greed works.” (Gordon Gekko, ‘Wall Street’ movie, 1987)

When energy-trading company Enron declared bankruptcy in 2001, it was the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history. Enron’s execs were pocketing millions while knowingly overstating the company’s earnings to shareholders through fraudulent accounting.

“Greed is good” even in the highly regulated financial services sector. UK’s Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards sums it up nicely when it says, “Too many bankers, especially at the most senior levels, have operated in an environment with insufficient personal responsibility. Top bankers dodged accountability for failings on their watch by claiming ignorance or hiding behind collective decision-making. […] Remuneration has incentivised misconduct and excessive risk-taking, reinforcing a culture where poor standards were often considered normal. Many bank staff have been paid too much for doing the wrong things, with bonuses awarded and paid before the long-term consequences become apparent. The potential rewards for fleeting short-term success have sometimes been huge, but the penalties for failure, often manifest only later, have been much smaller or negligible. Despite recent reforms, many of these problems persist.” – with emphasis (Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards, 2013)

By Greg Hutchins (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Over the next 10 years, I expect many more industries to be disrupted by software, with new world beating Silicon Valley companies doing the disruption in more cases than not.
Marc Andreessen – Venture Capitalist

We’ve been involved in engineering and tech automation for years. What surprises us is the observable breadth, depth, and impacts of automation (AI included) over the last five years, which COVID accelerated. What’s the big deal about automation?

By Greg Hutchins (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

So, when should a company self-disrupt? Or, more importantly when should you self-disrupt.

Companies face these disruptor questions:

1. What are possible triggers to start (your) self-disruption?
   2. When should they (you) self-disrupt?
      3. How quickly should they (you) self-disrupt?
         4. How should they (you) self-disrupt?
            5. What’s their (your) final destination?
               6. How are they (you) going to monetize (make money)?
                  All companies are searching for the next killer work model, app, platform, product, or idea. It’s too late when there are not enough products in the pipeline to create a sustainable competitive advantage. Companies learned this lesson the hard way.

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Project Management – it’s not covered by a discrete law but when it’s practiced under a contract it’s open to accusations of negligence, just consider the UK’s Hedley Byrne case.  Project Management is seen as a risk mitigation measure and, contractually speaking, this requires a duty of care by its practitioners and/or the legal entity represented.  Ignorance of legal requirements is no excuse for not knowing they exist.

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The PMBOK(Project Management Institute Book of Knowledge) Guide states that project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project activities to meet the project requirements. Having a good plan, experienced PM, and excellent team is essential to great project management performance.  Managing project risks is key to success. Good project management decisions are vital to project success. To achieve this goal, you need good project management leadership.

Breaking an old business model is always going to require leaders to follow their instincts. There will always be persuasive reasons not to take a risk. But if you only do what worked in the past, you’ll wake up one day and find that you’ve been passed by.

Guest Post by Bill Promfret (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Back in 1990, I was introduced to Og Mandino, a best selling American author, just three of his books, “The Greatest Salesman in the World” The Greatest Miracle in The World” and “The Greatest Secret in the World” these three books alone sold over 50 million copies, his lecture was on “How to write and Speak.” In his presentation, which had been a tradition for more than 40 years, was posted on YouTube not long after his death in 1996. In it, he explains the relationship among three critical elements of any level of success: knowledge (K), practice (P) and talent (T).

[Read more…]

Economics concerns itself with the determination of the most logical and effective use of resources to meet private and social goals for some form of benefit.  While primarily concerned with industry and business, its concepts of opportunity cost, supply and demand, present value, and mutual interdependence economics is also applicable to email; one of our most utilised forms of communication but, possibly, the most hated. [Read more…]