Confirmation Bias with HALT

Abstract

Kirk and Fred discuss the problem or benefits of having confirmation bias, where we accept or reject test results based on expectations.

Key Points

Join Kirk and Fred as they discuss how confirmation bias may result in misunderstanding of the goals of HALT evaluations.
Topics include:

• We are performing HALT on a system that has already experienced failures in the field to show how HALT could have precipitated the same reliability failures but are dismissed because “we already knew that” and fail to see the value of testing time compression and earlier discovery of these failures before market release.
• Confirmation bias may be an obstacle in that it’s always easier and natural to blame an outsourced supplier or component vendor for sending bad parts instead of completing an in-depth root cause analysis.
• Experience in HALT evaluations may also provide a bias of knowing that many electronics functional circuits can operate without failure well beyond ratings and specifications and establish new benchmarks of the fundamental empirical strength limits of current electronics technology

Enjoy an episode of Speaking of Reliability. Where you can join friends as they discuss reliability topics. Join us as we discuss topics ranging from design for reliability techniques to field data analysis approaches.

SOR 1004 Confirmation Bias with HALTKirk Gray

share

• Social:
• Link:
• Embed:

Download Audio RSS

Show Notes

Please click on this link to access a relatively new analysis of traditional reliability prediction methods article from the US ARMY and CALCE titled  “Reliability Prediction – Continued Reliance on a Misleading Approach”. It is in the public domain, so please distribute freely. Trying to predict reliability for development is a misleading a costly approach.

You can now purchase the most recent recording of Kirk Gray’s Hobbs Engineering 8 (two 4 hour sessions) hour Webinar “Rapid and Robust Reliability Development – 2022 HALT & HASS Methodologies Online Seminar” from this link.

For more information on the newest discovery testing methodology here is a link to the book “Next Generation HALT and HASS: Robust design of Electronics and Systems” written by Kirk Gray and John Paschkewitz.