Module 6 Analysis of Field Data — Warranty Forecasting

Lesson M06-02

Duration: 24 minutes

Here, we introduce a common way to set up the failure and volumes data for the analysis.  Then, we apply conditional failure probabilities to calculate the expected failures for different vintages of units at risk in the field.  Finally, we see how by repeating this calculation for different vintages and different forecast periods, we can develop a complete forecast of future returns. 

Reliability Reference Textbook – Section 13, Pages 2-11

Module 6 Analysis of Field Data — Warranty Forecasting

Lesson M06-01

Duration: 18 minutes

In Lesson 1, we discuss uses for Field Data/Warranty analysis and introduce some of the important concepts.  We discuss the potential non-homogeneity of field data and how this affects the modeling and forecasting of future field failures.

Module 5 Introduction to Reliability of Systems

Lesson M05-06

Duration: 6 minutes

The final lesson introduces some additional systems reliability concepts and methods.  Reliability Importance analysis identifies the components that have the largest impact on the system reliability. This is an easy question for pure series and pure parallel systems but is not obvious for more complex systems.  Reliability Allocation allows a system engineer to identify feasible reliability targets at the component level so that the system level reliability target may be achieved.  A few other more advanced concepts are introduced.   

Reliability Reference Textbook – Section 4, Pages 23-24

Module 5 Introduction to Reliability of Systems

Lesson M05-05

Duration: 9 minutes

Systems that are not simply combinations of series and parallel components are introduced and briefly described.  The methods available for analyzing these systems are introduced but not covered in detail.  

Reliability Reference Textbook – Section 4, Pages 19-22

Module 5 Introduction to Reliability of Systems

Lesson M05-04

Duration: 37 minutes

The exercises provide an opportunity to practice handling k-out-n Parallel systems. 

Module 5 Introduction to Reliability of Systems

Lesson M05-03

Duration: 21 minutes

Some Parallel systems require more than one of the items in parallel to function for the system to function.  K-out-of-n systems are introduced and the method to calculate the reliability is described and illustrated.  We also reinforce methods for handling combinations of series and parallel subsystems and discuss types of redundancies.  

Reliability Reference Textbook – Section 4, Pages 11-18

Module 5 Introduction to Reliability of Systems

Lesson M05-02

Duration: 22 minutes

Here we define the pure parallel system model in which redundant components exist such that only 1 of the components in parallel must function for the system to function.  We illustrate how calculating the system reliability of this model directly can be tedious, yet calculating the failure probability of the system is straight-forward and provides an easier approach to obtaining the system reliability.  A short exercise is offered to reinforce calculating reliability for series and parallel systems.    

Reliability Reference Textbook – Section 4, Pages 8-10

Module 5 Introduction to Reliability of Systems

Lesson M05-01

Duration: 31 minutes

In this module, we define system reliability and discuss the factors that impact the overall system level reliability.  We also introduce reliability block diagrams which help depict the system from a reliability standpoint.  We then introduce the series system model which is used to model the reliability when any component failure will cause the system to fail.  

Reliability Reference Textbook – Section 4, Pages 1-7

Module 4 Estimation of Reliability Metrics

Lesson M04-11

Duration: 19 minutes

We close out this module with a short introduction of standards-based approaches for reliability prediction.  We also briefly discuss a more theoretical approach called Physics of Failure.  

Module 4 Estimation of Reliability Metrics

Lesson M04-10

Duration: 42 minutes

In this lesson, we cover the use of degradation data and modeling to predict eventual failure times that can be used in life data analysis.  We cover both situations where the testing is non-destructive as well as destructive (where a part can only be measured once).

Module 4 Estimation of Reliability Metrics

Lesson M04-09

Duration: 23 minutes

In lesson 9, we introduce an estimation approach that does not require the use of a specific probability distribution.  It is a more general approach which may be useful when adequate models are difficult to fit.  There are some shortcomings of this approach.  For example, a large amount of data is needed and extrapolation is not possible. 

Reliability Reference Textbook – Section 7

Module 4 Estimation of Reliability Metrics

Lesson M04-08

Duration: 36 minutes

In this lesson, we show a demonstration of modeling multiple failure modes independently and then combining the results to produce overall system level estimates (and graphical output) that account for all failure modes.

Reliability Reference Textbook – Section 6, Pages 26-32

Module 4 Estimation of Reliability Metrics

Lesson M04-07

Duration: 20 minutes

Here is a chance to practice reliability estimation with censored data.  You also are asked to explore how making an additional assumption (regarding the shape parameter) affects the precision of the estimates.  A second exercise asks you to compare two groups by analyzing them together.

Module 4 Estimation of Reliability Metrics

Lesson M04-06

Duration: 26 minutes

In this lesson, we illustrate how to perform an analysis on multiple groups of data for easy comparisons with regard to reliability performance.  The groups are independent data sets that could be from different designs, plants, suppliers, etc.  We also discuss how to assess whether the groups are statistically similar or not.  

Module 4 Estimation of Reliability Metrics

Lesson M04-05

Duration: 7 minutes

Here, we provide another demonstration in Reliasoft which focuses on handling censored data.  In addition to the use of a censoring column for right-censored date, we also provide an alternate more general format which can accommodate right, interval, or left censoring, if present. 

Reliability Reference Textbook – Section 6, Pages 12-25