Raise Your Confidence by Strategically Stacking Evidence

Late-stage design just hit a snag—now comes the moment that separates guesswork from great engineering. We walk through a clear, repeatable method to investigate unexpected failures and make high-impact decisions with confidence. Instead of hunting for a perfect test, we set a confidence target and stack multiple forms of imperfect evidence until we close the gap.

If you’re navigating late-stage product development and want a calm, methodical way to move from 40% to 90% confidence, this framework will help you choose the next best step, allocate limited time and budget, and know when to stop.

Join the Substack for monthly guides, templates, and Q&A where I help you apply these to your specific projects. Visit qualityduringdesign.substack.com.

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Stop Risk Theater, Start Real Decisions

We break down why risk analyses often become risk theater and replace them with a simple, practical impact vs likelihood matrix that guides action. From quick wins to high-stakes unknowns, we show how to calibrate effort, buy the right learning, and move with confidence.

Three key takeaways

•  Avoid “Risk Theater” by Using Tools for Decision-Making: Risk analysis tools like FMEAs should be used to make genuine design decisions and drive changes, not just to check a box for project completion. Simply going through the motions without acting on the information is unproductive “risk theater.”
•  Use the Impact vs. Likelihood Matrix to Guide Next Steps: The two-by-two matrix maps the Impact (if you’re wrong) against your Likelihood/Confidence (in your current decision). The resulting quadrant dictates the best course of action, ranging from delegating “Easy Wins” to prioritizing data-gathering for “Critical Unknowns.”
• Prioritize Investigation for High-Risk Scenarios: Decisions that have a High Impact and Low Confidence (Critical Unknowns) should not proceed until you have dedicated time and resources to investigate, test, and gather data. This step is necessary to increase your confidence and reduce the technical risk before proceeding with expensive or time-consuming implementation.

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How to Choose Risk Tools That Actually Help Decisions

If you reach for the nearest “risk” template, it might cause more problems.

There are two very different jobs we ask risk tools to do. In this episode, we talk about how to pick the one that actually moves your project forward.

• identification tools for unknown unknowns (like FMEA and preliminary hazard analysis) that systematically surface risks to users, systems, and environments
• decision tools for known unknowns that clarify impact, likelihood, and uncertainty so teams can choose a path with confidence.

Along the way, we call out organizational risks that belong in resilience planning, not product FMEAs.

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Design Clarity Through Cadence: Aligning Podcasts, Substack, and a Playbook for Teams

Big changes, clearer focus, and more ways to learn together. We’re tightening our cadence to two episodes a month and building monthly themes that travel across the podcast, blog, and a new Substack home—so you can go beyond ideas and into practice with tools, Q&A, and live community sessions.

Here’s what’s new and why it matters. The podcast keeps its familiar format, but now each month has a focused theme that carries into Substack deep dives. Subscribers get comprehensive guides, open Q&A weeks where we answer your specific questions in the comments, and a one-hour live chat each month to pressure-test methods on real scenarios. It’s a smarter learning loop: listen, explore, apply—then come back with better questions. You’ll also get access to the strategy vault filled with templates, worksheets, and facilitation guides.

We’re also thrilled to announce the launch of Pierce the Design Fog, a practical playbook for product, engineering, and UX teams who need structure without losing speed or humanity. With models like the concept space and ADEPT framework, you’ll align cross-functional teams, turn insights into actionable design inputs, and make confident calls under uncertainty. There’s a companion card deck—Concept Quest: Design Discovery—that acts like a portable facilitator, with prompts and instructions to guide workshops. Pre-order before October 14, 2025, to enter the card deck giveaway and bring these methods straight into your team’s next session.

Subscribe to the show, check out the Substack at qualityduringdesign.substack.com, and leave a review to help more builders find us.

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