Fred Schenkelberg — Thought Leader

Author of CRE Preparation Notes, Musings", NoMTBF, multiple books & ebooks>, co-host on Speaking of Reliability>/a>, and speaker in the Accendo Reliability Webinar Series.

This author's archive lists contributions of articles and episodes.

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

Bought a House Due to Pokemon Go

[Note: I wrote and published this article in August 2016, almost 10 years ago. The overall house hasn’t failed yet some windows leak when it’s raining (replaced), the water heater and furnace have both failed (replaced, repaired), and we are enjoying the house as our home. And, while I do get out for walks, I do not play Pokémon Go anymore.]

Seriously, while out walking, listening to a podcast, and playing Pokémon Go, I found an open house to view. A week later our offer was accepted, and next week we close.

I would not have been out walking that Sunday afternoon if not out playing Pokémon Go.

Glad there are no dangerous cliffs nearby. [Read more…]

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

QDD 185: Expected Value Makes Uncertainty Manageable

Expected Value Makes Uncertainty Manageable

Product teams often face decisions where uncertainty meets cost, and the clock is ticking.

a manager asks for another test
finance flags the price
engineering hesitates because confidence is stuck at sixty percent.
The friction isn’t just about money; it’s about balancing risk, value, and time in a way that serves customers and protects the business.

That’s where expected value shines. It’s a lightweight decision tool that translates probability and impact into a single, comparable figure.

More important, it pairs nicely with a simple three-phase flow (frame it, investigate it, choose it) so your decision is not a hunch, but an informed step tied to evidence and project priorities.

[Read more…]

by Fred Schenkelberg 8 Comments

3 Ways to Improve your Reliability Program

A Few Simple Ideas to Improve Your Reliability Program

Spending too much on reliability and not getting the results you expect? Just getting started and not sure where to focus your reliability program? Or, just looking for ways to improve your program?

There is not one way to build an effective reliability program. The variations in industries, expectations, technology, and the many constraints shape each program. Here are three suggestions you can apply to any program at any time. These are not quick-fix solutions, nor will you see immediate results, yet each will significantly improve your reliability program and help you achieve the results you and your customers expect. [Read more…]

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

5 Clues Using MTBF is Not Helping

Have you ever heard the claim that “We use MTBF, as it’s working just fine”?

They may be profitable and successful in the marketplace. Is MTBF serving them well?

Probably not.

One way help the folks claiming MTBF is alright is to illustrate using a better reliability metric may provide an improvement over using MTBF. Asking a few questions may find the inevitable chink in the MTBF armor.