Why Do Some Still Use Parts Count Predictions?
Abstract
Kirk and Fred discuss the continued use of prediction models in reliability engineering, such as MIL-HDBK 217F or any other models based on the 217 which is last revised in 1995.
Key Points
Join Kirk and Fred as they discuss the use of reliability data or models based on components that was last updated 28 years ago and, to quote a prediction software vendor states “why this standard remains as one of the most widely used and accepted reliability prediction standards in use today.”
Topics include:
- Why prediction models can be valid and useful with mechanical systems that wear out, such as the mechanical components in a washing machine
- Why reliability prediction methods for electronics is a misleading approach that distracts from testing and actions that will find the weaknesses in a electronics assembly.
- Why beliefs in the validity and low cost of reliability prediction drive the continued use of failure prediction methods if engineers do make and effort to find and understand the root physical cause of failures.
Enjoy an episode of Speaking of Reliability. Where you can join friends as they discuss reliability topics. Join us as we discuss topics ranging from design for reliability techniques, to field data analysis approaches.
Show Notes
For more information about Kirk’s Consulting services, please see his Accelerated Reliability Solutions website please click here
Here is the link to the US Army and CALCE document (in the public domain) “Reliability Prediction- Continued Reliance on a Misleading Approach”. Please distribute freely.
Here is a link to Kirk’s popular Accendo article “Why the Drain in the Bathtub Curve Matters” .
To see or purchase Kirk’s new book co-authored with John Paschkewitz, “Next Generation HALT and HASS: Robust Design of Electronics and Systems” please click on this link.
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