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by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

The Value of Making Better Decisions

We make decisions every day. Our project teams and organizations have many individuals making decisions every day. Most of these decisions have little to do with product reliability, yet a surprising number of design, marketing, production, and customer care decisions that have a direct impact on product reliability performance.

As a reliability professional, do you work to make better decisions? Do you work to enable the individuals designing, producing, marketing, etc your organization’s products to make better decisions concerning reliability?

If not, why?

Let’s outline a few ways to estimate the value to you and your organization to improve decision making concerning reliability. [Read more…]

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

The Unpredictability of Uncertainty

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Introduction

Recently I wrote an article titled “Can You Calculate the Probability of Uncertainty?” The article posited that the heavy dependence on mathematics to determine the probability of risk realization may actually create “false positives” regarding the basis for the determination of probability.

My point was that there is too much uncertainty, things that we just do not know, to be able to calculate the probability of uncertainty with any degree of confidence. I received several comments from readers telling me that I was confusing the issue and that determining the probability of risk is all about “uncertainty”.

I have to say that this gave me pause to think. And, my conclusion is that risk is all about the probability of identified certainties that carry an uncertain realization. [Read more…]

by Greg Hutchins 2 Comments

Can You Calculate the Probability of Uncertainty?

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Many aspects of risk management are deeply rooted in mathematical formulae for determining probability. This heavy dependence on mathematics to determine probability of risk realization may create “false positives” regarding a risk that can be either positive or negative. There is also a limitation on how much data can be gathered and assessed in respect to the development of the probability equation regarding the risk being assessed. [Read more…]