Doing Calculations
Abstract
Chris and Fred discuss how to calculate ‘confidence’ and other things regarding probability and statistics … particularly as it applies to reliability!
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Author of Reliability in Emerging Technology, multiple books, co-host on Speaking of Reliability, and speaker in the Accendo Reliability Webinar Series.
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Chris is a reliability engineering teacher ... which means that after working with many organizations to make lasting cultural changes, he is now focusing on developing online, avatar-based courses that will hopefully make the 'complex' art of reliability engineering into a simple, understandable activity that you feel confident of doing (and understanding what you are doing).
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Chris and Fred discuss how to calculate ‘confidence’ and other things regarding probability and statistics … particularly as it applies to reliability!
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by Christopher Jackson Leave a Comment
And the answer is not ‘the letter C.’ A FMEA is a group activity that follows a logical (and time-proven) structure to effectively ‘brainstorm’ what are called ‘corrective actions’ for existing or likely problems in design and manufacture of products. Production teams that comprise designers, engineers, technicians and manufacturers typically have a wealth of existing knowledge and understanding of the product being developed. But some people will tell you that an FMECA is not an FMEA. And many government agencies, in particular, demand FMECAs over FMEAs. Interested to understand the difference (if any) between FMEAs and FMECAs? … and How can you make an FMECA work for you? Join us at this webinar!
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Chris and Fred discuss the ability to get ‘data sets’ to practice reliability analysis on! … sounds like a party …
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Chris and Fred discuss how long stuff lasts! … or how long something should last! … how do you ‘know’ what it should be?
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Chris and Fred discuss how reliability can sometimes be linked to politics (… at least in some way). Is this an experience you share?
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There might not ever be a better demonstration of the saying that …
… a fish rots from it’s head.
Boeing is responsible for the half-baked Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) that was forced into its new 737 Max aircraft. This involved a decidedly awful attempt to convince the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that there was no need to subject said aircraft through all the checks and balances that you need to go through if it is in fact a brand-new and different type of plane. Which it was. This resulted in the deaths of 346 passengers and crew (along with plenty of claims that it was pilot error). And just to be clear, Boeing has since admitted that it’s employees defrauded the FAA during the original certification process – an admission it was not required to make if it was able to complete a three-year period of increased monitoring and reporting. Which it could not.
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Chris and Fred discuss how to make a good impression when interviewing for a reliability engineering position. How do you prepare?
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What is a ‘root cause’ of failure? It is something that you did (or didn’t) do that ultimately resulted in failure. It’s not corrosion (that’s a physical process that follows the laws of nature that you can’t change). It’s not a porous seal that allows moisture to enter your product to cause corrosion (that’s a defect or fault that you or your team made happen). Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is the process where we systematically work out what things we did or didn’t do that allowed failure to occur, and Fault Trees are often very helpful in finding this root causes. If you want to learn more about RCA or how fault trees can help RCA, join us for this webinar.
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A simple way of looking at our brain is by dividing it into the conscious, subconscious and unconscious minds. The conscious mind is all about what we are actively thinking about in the here and now. We might be navigating as we drive through the countryside. We might decide to take an exit from the main road because our conscious mind has worked out that the map we are looking at is showing us that’s what we need to do to get to where we want to go.
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Past Good and Bad Knowledge
Chris and Fred discuss the so-called ‘bedrock documents and statistics’ that are used over and over again as if they are universally correct – even though they might have nothing to do with ‘your’ machines or systems. WHY?
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When I was a bright eyed, motivated (younger) officer in the Australian Army, one my many tasks when deployed overseas was to raise paperwork to formally request ‘battlefield material’ to be sent back home from whatever country we were in. ‘Battlefield material’ was items that included a range of mementos, keepsakes, and things you would typically see in a museum to add to the historical collections of my battalions and regiments back home.
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Chris and Fred discuss the three-letter acronym ‘MLE’ stands for? Well, it stands for ‘maximum likelihood estimate.’ Ever heard of it? Do you know what it means?
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For thousands of years, doctors treated virtually every skin ailment by ‘letting’ or draining the blood of the patient. Leeches are really good at doing this as they quite literally drink up the allegedly ‘poisoned’ blood that is being removed. Of course, by the late 1800s, science had advanced to the point where it was realized that this was nonsense, and so leeches fell out of favour in the world of medicine.
But that same scientific revolution saw the development of drugs like heroin and cocaine to cure everything from schizophrenia through to children’s cough. With doctors prescribing these drugs left right and centre, and worldwide epidemic of drug-addiction misery was spawned.
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It is no small irony that a software application that is designed to protect IT systems from malicious actors was behind the biggest IT outage in the history of computers. A company called Crowdstrike provides a ‘Falcon Sensor’ product that is intended to scan computers that use Microsoft operating systems for vulnerabilities. And this product is deployed so deeply into its host operating systems that it has access to the ‘kernel,’ which is the program that runs the basic code that links applications to the computer hardware (like memory, central processing unit and other devices). Unfortunately a Falcon Sensor update that Crowdstrike sent to its customers had a bug that was not picked up by its own validation programs (because it too had a bug). And unfortunately, it accesses a ‘forbidden’ part of the memory that causes the infamous BSOD or ‘blue screen of death.’ So airlines, hospitals, banks, hotels and lots of other companies simply couldn’t operate.
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How heavy should you be? Perhaps this is a sensitive question. The average weight of a human is about 65.2 kg or 143.7 lbs. So if your weight is above this figure, are you ‘too heavy’? Conversely, if you are below this figure, are you ‘too light’? Being over and underweight can bring a whole raft of health consequences.
Hopefully you would agree with me in saying that the ‘average’ human weight is not a good benchmark to use if you want to get healthier. Or at least it is not the only benchmark you should think about.
But unfortunately … many manufacturers use approaches that are embarrassingly close to this ridiculous approach to continual improvement.