Bathtub Curve Flaws

Abstract

Carl and Fred discussing a reader question having to do with the use of the reliability bathtub curve, including the efficacy of the curve itself.

Key Points

Join Carl and Fred as they discuss what is right or wrong with the reliability bathtub curve.

Topics include:

• Is the “bathtub curve” more fictional than real?
• The concept that there are three distinct areas of failure rates over time is not useful.
• Introduction to Reliability tutorials often teach this curve.
• Based on experience, we have rarely seen a “flat” part of the curve.
• Discussion around why people still assume an exponential distribution
• The most important thing is not where you are on the failure rate vs time plot; but rather what failure mechanisms are being encountered.
• “The Future of FMEA” article stimulated a reader question about models
• Eyes wide open: Be aware of the assumptions and limitations of models, before using them
• When using models, you need to be in for the long term, and work to improve the model over time.

Enjoy an episode of Speaking of Reliability. Where you can join friends as they discuss reliability topics. Join us as we discuss topics ranging from design for reliability techniques to field data analysis approaches.

SOR 880 Bathtub Curve FlawsCarl S. Carlson

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