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Time Series vs. Actuarial Forecasts?

Time Series vs. Actuarial Forecasts?

Time series forecasts are easy to make and data are available. They’re like driving while looking in the rear-view mirror. A survey listed 31 forecasting software programs: none actuarial [Yurkewicz]. Actuarial failure forecasts are less biased and are more precise than time series failure forecasts, because actuarial failure forecasts use age-specific failure rates. How much better? 

The example in this article shows the 5% to 95% time series confidence interval width is 44.78 vs. the nonparametric actuarial Kaplan-Meier actuarial forecast width of 12.63, from grouped failure data, and actuarial forecast width of 15.45, from ships and returns counts.

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Life Data Analysis of Complete Data Using Minitab

Life Data Analysis of Complete Data Using Minitab

In this video, Hemant Urdhwareshe discusses how to analyse complete data of failures to identify distribution, identify distribution parameters, estimate reliability at a specified time using Minitab (version 19) software. The file used in the video can be downloaded here: Reliability Data.xls.zip.

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Correlation and Regression on Casio fx991-MS Calculator and Excel

Correlation and Regression on Casio fx991-MS Calculator and Excel

Dear Quality and Reliability Professionals, this video is created to understand and learn how to use Casio fx991-MS calculator for performing correlation and regression with a simple application example that viewers can try. The video will be useful for all those who want to prepare for exams by American Society for Quality (ASQ).

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Key Teaching Principle #2: Connection

  As covered in the first article in this series, Principles of Effective Teaching, reliability engineers, FMEA team leaders, and other quality and reliability professionals are often called upon to teach the principles of reliability or FMEA. Whether you are a student who wants to enhance your learning experience, an instructor who wants to improve teaching results, or an engineer who wishes to convey knowledge to another person, this series will offer practical knowledge and advice.

The Role of Personal Connection When Teaching

Invisible threads are the strongest ties   Friedrich Nietzsche

Key Teaching Principle # 2 is the instructor maintains a genuine connection with each of the students.

Our scientific knowledge has accelerated so rapidly that we sometimes forget the importance of human connection to our well being.

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Convert AFRs to Field Reliability?

Convert AFRs to Field Reliability?

AFRs are periodic ratios of failure counts divided by installed base. Have you seen meeting rooms wallpapered with AFR charts (Annualized Failure Rate)? Have you sat through debates about the wiggles in AFR charts? Fred Schenkelberg wondered if reliability could be estimated from AFRs and their input data? How about age-specific reliability and actuarial failure rate functions? Actuarial forecasts? MTBFs? Wonder no more!

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Unveiling the Kano Model of Customer Satisfaction

Unveiling the Kano Model of Customer Satisfaction

In the ever-evolving landscape of engineering and design, strategic frameworks play a pivotal role in deciphering the intricate dynamics of customer satisfaction. Consider, for example, the Kano Model of Customer Satisfaction, brainchild of management science professor, Noriaki Kano. This model offers a nuanced approach to understanding the diverse aspects of customer satisfaction, making it a valuable tool for engineers and design professionals as they transition from problem definition to ideation and prototyping. [Read more…]

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What if Ships Cohorts Were Random?

What if Ships Cohorts Were Random?

The Kaplan-Meier reliability estimator is for dead-forever products or parts, given individual lifetime data or a “Nevada” table of periodic ships cohorts and their grouped failure counts. This estimator presumes that ships cohorts are NOT random. Production, sales, installed base, and cohort case counts are random! What does that do to Kaplan-Meier reliability estimates? What is the nonparametric reliability function estimator if ships cohorts are random?

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Key Teaching Principle #1: Understanding

As covered in the first article in this series, Principles of Effective Teaching, reliability engineers, FMEA team leaders, and other quality and reliability professionals are often called upon to teach the principles of reliability or FMEA. Whether you are a student who wants to enhance your learning experience, an instructor who wants to improve teaching results, or an engineer who wishes to convey knowledge to another person, this series will offer practical knowledge and advice.

Understand What You Teach

Key Teaching Principle # 1 is the instructor demonstrates a solid understanding of fundamentals, speaking directly to students, and not reading slides.

“Human behavior flows from three main sources: desire, emotion, and knowledge.” Plato

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When is FMEA complete?

“Life calls not for perfection, but for completeness.”  Carl Jung

One of the common FMEA questions that comes up is: When is an FMEA complete? You’d think it would be simple, but many organizations and practitioners get it wrong.

In this article, I’ll begin with the purpose of Design and Process FMEAs, and from there, we’ll examine two very different approaches to completing an FMEA.

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Mastering the Art of Empathy in Design Thinking

Mastering the Art of Empathy in Design Thinking

Welcome to the realm where reliability engineering meets product design—a landscape where innovation thrives on understanding and addressing customer pain points. In this guide, we will explore the intricate dance of empathy within the design thinking process, offering engineers and designers a roadmap to navigate the complexities of customer-centric problem-solving.

At the heart of the design thinking process lies the empathize phase—a journey that begins with a courageous act: wiping the slate clean of preconceived notions and biases. For seasoned professionals, this is akin to stepping into the unknown. Design thinking demands a reset—a departure from the comfort of accumulated solutions and a return to the essence of the problem.

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Enhancing the Performance and Durability of Forged Steel with Annealing

Enhancing the Performance and Durability of Forged Steel with Annealing

with co-author Dr. Jay Desai

Steel forging holds significant importance in developed economies around the world. It is used to shape raw materials into precisely designed components that often have critical performance requirements. Due to their strength, durability, and reliability in harsh environments, forged steel components are utilized in a wide range of industries including aerospace, automotive, defense, and construction.

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New Series: Principles of Effective Teaching

Principles of Effective Teaching

“I never teach my pupils. I only attempt to provide the conditions in which they can learn.” Albert Einstein

Reliability engineers, FMEA team leaders, and other quality and reliability professionals are often called upon to teach the principles of reliability or FMEA. This article is the beginning of a new series called “The principles of effective teaching.”

If you want to convey knowledge to another person, you are teaching. If you want to learn from another person who is teaching, you will benefit from learning these principles.

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