Will the Arm Fall Off Your Suit if you Pull the Thread? Understanding Correlated Risks

Guest Post by Howard M. Wiener (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In my previous post, I asserted that many companies are not good at managing risks and I’ll stand by that statement.  They’re not good at identifying them, poor at pinpointing dependencies, don’t understand the interactions that create or exacerbate risks and fail to actively quantify and evaluate the effectiveness of their risk management programs.  I believe that a number of disciplines should be applied to help address these issues.

Let’s talk about Enterprise Architecture.  No!  Don’t run away.  We’ll keep it at a layman’s level and try to avoid the need to employ an electron microscope to voluminous diagrams of elements of your company’s structure in order to make any sense of it. [Read more…]

Coronavirus: Assessing Risk and Planning Initiatives

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Coronavirus seems to be spreading quicker than previous pandemic potential viruses, i.e., H5N1, H7N1, SARS, Ebola, MERS, etc.  Could this be the long awaited/anticipated threat realization, or is it becoming a media driven phenomenon?  Needless to say, planners should be implementing some assessment analysis regarding the potential for impacting business operations.  Here is a brief look back at one of my articles from 2006, entitled, “Pre-Pandemic Planning: Business Continuity Perspectives“, when Bird Flu (H5N1) was the hot topic:

The business community is “not adequately prepared” for a possible avian flu pandemic, says Secretary of Health & Human Services Michael Leavitt.  As of July 24, 2006, there have been 231 confirmed cases in humans resulting in 133 deaths (a mortality rate of 57%).  The virus has spread to 33 countries through wild migratory birds that have now infected domestic poultry (source World Organization for Animal Health). [Read more…]

COVID 19: Blame is for God and Small Children

Guest Post by Joseph Paris (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Unless you are a person that firmly believes there will be a second wave – or even that there might be a second wave –  the reactions and measures taken to the COVID-19 pandemic are starting to calm down and the world is beginning to unwind the measures that have been put in place; albeit to varying degrees and velocities and with little consistency.

On thing is for certain; this event will be studied for years to come as data is gathered, scrubbed, and harmonized so that proper analysis can take place.  Unfortunately, another thing which is as certain is that the analysis will be politicized – with, unfortunately, a priority of placing blame being a primary driver of the analysis and the outcomes.

But it would be wise to remember; “Blame is for God and small children” – Dustin Hoffman as Louis Dega in the movie “Papillon”. [Read more…]

Your Risk Assessment’s a Thermometer, Not a Crystal Ball!

Guest Post by Andrew Sheves (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

If you’re cooking, you need a way to tell how hot the oven is.  You won’t be able to tell the difference between 275F and 325F just by sticking your hand inside – both are going to feel hot to you – but this is the difference between a perfect, crunchy yet chewy meringue and something that’s dry and explodes into a pile of dust. So we use a thermometer to give us the information we need.

Similarly, we need a way to be able to differentiate between risks, to separate those that are ‘hotter’ and might burn us and the others that are simply ‘warm’.  Unfortunately, we can’t buy a risk thermometer so we conduct a risk assessment to help us make that differentiation. [Read more…]

In COVID Time, Is Your Tuchis Hanging Out?

Guest Post by Howard M. Weiner (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”
– Warren Buffett

The current pandemic has wreaked profound dislocation on businesses throughout the world and upended societal norms as we know them.  It may have been an unpredictable, ‘black swan’ event that will not recur anytime soon, though that’s open to discussion, but it’s worth evaluating your risk management practices to see whether you could have done better.  

My guess is that, with the exception of a small fraction of companies, risk management is not done particularly well and better (or at least, less-worse) outcomes could have been achieved. [Read more…]

New Norm for Staffing Projects

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the world. Social distancing, face masks, confinement at home and other restrictions is the new norm. This will be the case at least for the foreseeable future as the economy re-opens. The long-term effects are yet to be determined. One change that is likely to emerge is to find a more efficient, less costly way to perform work with minimal workers to make up for lost revenue. [Read more…]

Strategy + Execution = Success

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

As COVID-19 has disrupted life all over the globe, organisations are forced to significantly change and adapt to the ever-changing customer attitudes and preferences resulting from the pandemic.

The competitive playing field and business environment have been reset. It is now back to square one for many businesses. Businesses have to operate like a start-up, big and small. And they have to start at the same time when governments relax their social isolation requirements. [Read more…]

New Project Framework for Long Duration Projects

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The Central Artery/Tunnel Project, known as the Big Dig in Boston, originally was planned to take 10 years to complete for a budget of $2.5B. It actually took 30 years and cost $14.8 B.  The traditional project framework used was inadequate for a long duration project. A new project framework, I call Adaptive Rolling Wave, is needed. It is a combination of the Adaptive Project and Rolling Wave framework, that is more suited for a long duration project because it breaks down the project into a number of smaller projects. [Read more…]

The New Normal: What Was the Old One?

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Working From Home (WFH)…just one of the things that the “New Normal” will bring according to a few voices from the populations of various workforces who have contributed to economies during lockdowns.  People seem to have enjoyed the utopia of ‘flexible’ working hours with a freedom to work when they want, attending virtual meetings and collaborating in on-line virtual offices. [Read more…]

Address Your LOI Before Your ROI

Guest Post by Andrew Sheves (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

As a risk manager, you will often be asked to explain the RoI (return on investment) of you, your team, even the whole risk management program.

Effective risk management can help an organization grasp an opportunity and realizing an upside risk should generate a positive RoI.

However, when you are focussed on shoring up a weak system, plugging gaps and minimizing risks, showing an RoI can be hard. Even so, an inability to show a positive RoI in a cost-conscious environment can threaten investment in your team. It can even make people question the value of the program as a whole. [Read more…]

Have the Faith to Seize Risk Opportunities

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Have faith to seize on opportunities that come your way (but the risk is within us!)

Everyone has opportunities. But it is up to us to seize the opportunities that come our way!

There will be opportunities to build lives, to better ourselves, or to serve the community.

Faith and opportunities

Faith is the complete trust or confidence in someone or something. It is the confident assurance that something we want is going to happen. Faith is the certainty that what we hope for is waiting for us, even though we cannot see it up ahead. [Read more…]

Where’s Our Next Shock Coming From?

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The Coronavirus pandemic (COVID19) continues to spread throughout the world despite the best efforts of governments and the medical community.  With no vaccine becoming available in the near term and perhaps even in the long term we are faced with growing uncertainty.  It seems that ever since the emergence of COVID19 that conflicting advice, information and guidance has exacerbated the situation and created a lack of trust on the part of the public on what measures to take.  Wear a mask. 

Don’t wear a mask.  Social distance.  Don’t social distance.  The only advice that seems trustworthy is “Wash your hands”; and, that is something that we should do regardless of the pandemic – it’s good common sense. [Read more…]

In Risk Management, It’s the Destination, Not the Journey

Guest Post by Andrew Sheves (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

A while back, I felt that pretty much everything was out of sync and I was highly disorganized. There was a growing list of undone things whether that was around the house, at work, with my family, or at the places where I volunteer.

It was definitely time for a reorganization. [Read more…]

Electric Car Hidden Risk

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Fifty years ago, having your own car was a sign of adulthood and your ticket around town. But that is all going to change within the next five to ten years due to rising CO2 levels and a new trend called Transportation as a Service. TaaS sits at the intersection of four technical macro trends. These are:

1. Autonomous vehicles
2. Electric vehicles
3. Connectivity
4. Sharing economy

These trends are here today and are predicted to grow significantly and quickly over the next five to ten years. It is a positive trend with a lot of positive affects on the country and world.

The risk to this trend is the need for electric power will outstrip the supply. This article presents the case for this risk. [Read more…]

Project Communications

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

George Bernhard Shaw once said, and it’s now been written down and put on posters and the like: “The problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place”. 

In this ‘Information Age’ we have access to, receive, generate, and send more information than ever before.  People can suffer from infoxication as a consequence of ‘information overload’ and decision making has, we are told, become more difficult as a consequence.  [Read more…]