CERM® Risk Insights

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Just Do It!; “He who hesitates is lost”; and “Strike while the iron is hot” are all expressions used with impunity when a project is about to start as we are encouraged to ‘get on with it’ as nothing can go wrong, go wrong?, wrong!

After all, ‘a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step‘ and projects have to start sooner or later.  But what happens when project planning is incomplete and project participants are caught up in that unfortunate project dilemma of ‘wild enthusiasm’ as they carry on with a sense of urgency while conveniently disregarding risk. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Joseph Paris (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The art of debate has devolved.  No longer is it used as a tool of discovery, understanding, reconciliation, and progress.  Today, it is a tool used to beat one another into submission –with the wholesale surrender of the beliefs and values held by one party over the other being the goal. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Risk is an event or activity that can go wrong and cause an impact to the project. Risks can have a negative or positive impact to the project. Risks that have a positive impact are called opportunities. If they a negative impact to the project, they are called risks.

Risks and opportunities can be generated by anyone on the project but typically are identified and analyzed at the IPT (Integrated ProductTeam) level.  A goal on a project is to try and balance risks and opportunities to mitigate the chance of cost or schedule growth. [Read more…]

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The 2020 democratic presidential candidates are backing the New Green Deal, which calls for the elimination of fossil fuels within 10-40 years (depending on which candidate you are talking to). If America is serious about this goal, then nuclear fusion power is the only practical way to begin to achieve it. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

“That’s not my job” …an inevitable response when a ‘somebody’ is asked to do something that requires their effort and which they believe they don’t have to do, don’t won’t do, or can’t do.  This familiar cry is often said with such impunity that the requester may well feel that they are in the wrong…but who is wrong and who has been wronged?
Both parties are taken aback; the requester may wilt away and take the request somewhere else with umbrage and annoyance, or challenge the rebuttal.  The requested, feeling threatened, reacts defensively be it right or wrong.  Conflict results but the sad fact is that the disputed work in question is delayed. ‘ [Read more…]

Guest Post by Joseph Paris (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

I would find it hard to believe that any successful person achieved that success without having at least one mentor along their journey – someone who was instrumental and influential in the life journey of the person being mentored (the mentee).  But what is mentorship? [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The title is based on a comment: “The quality fear factor is gone.”  The assumption behind the comment is that fear often motivates behavioral change.  This was certainly true for the quality movement. But, if the movement was driven by fear, what happens when the fear is no longer there?  Does anything replace it? This piece looks at these questions. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

We have probably all uttered (or muttered) that immortal line of “if you want something done, do it yourself’ when confronted with a less than satisfactory performance from somebody else.  The quote is attributable to Napoleon Bonaparte who, as an emperor, certainly found that this dream of doing everything yourself wasn’t really possible and, perhaps, his downfall may have been attributable to trying to live this dream rather than delegate effectively? [Read more…]

Guest Post by Joseph Paris (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

There are very few people that actually enjoy meetings.  I have never heard anyone say, “I can’t wait for the meeting this afternoon” unless it’s followed by “I won’t have to eat at my desk.”

Certainly, the people who are called to attend a meeting largely lack enthusiasm are energetic unless they, or their project, are the reason for the meeting – and even then, only if it’s expected to be a positive experience for them.  And the person calling the meeting will not usually be enthusiastic or energetic unless the reason for the meeting is something joyous or dreadful – or unless they are an autocrat or narcissist who just wants to tell people what to do, how to do it – and otherwise ladle-on (usually unreasonable) commands and demands. [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The U.S. federal government is beginning a shift from a reactive approach to a risk event such as a flood or hurricane, to a proactive approach to risk management.  This can be seen clearly in the changes to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requirements as stated in the 2018 Disaster Recovery Reform Act (DRRA) and the Draft National Mitigation Investment Strategy.  This piece looks at these changes. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Some interesting points about how organizations apply current standards such as Business Impact Analysis (Assessment) (BIA), risk assessment methodologies, compliance and planning has been written about lately.   Each author presents good arguments for their particular methodology.  Nassim Taleb created the concept of “Antifragile” because he did not feel that “resilience” adequately described the need for organizations to be ready to absorb the impact of an event and bounce back quickly.  [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In earlier articles, I discussed two risk-oriented surveys.  One conducted at the World Economic Forum was of the world movers and shakers.  The second was conducted by North Carolina State University. It reflected the responses of CEOs and senior managers. This article discusses the results of the Aon “Risk Management Survey” of risk managers. [Read more…]

Guest Post by James Kline (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The World Economic Forum conducts a risk assessment survey annually.  The 2019 survey is the 14^th edition.  It contains information from 2009 to 2019.  The article looks at the results of the survey for these years and discusses some implications. [Read more…]

Guest Post by Joseph Paris (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

I just got off the golf course hitting 9-holes with my Pop, who is 84 years old.  God bless him, I hope he has many more rounds to play and I look forward to getting out as often as I can with him.  We played the En-Joie Golf Club; a stop on the PGA Tour from 1972 to 2005 when the BC Open was played there – and now, as the Dick’s Sporting Goods Open, which is a stop on the Champions Tour. 

It is unique in that the course is owned and operated by Broome County.  This means that anyone off the street can play a PGA course for municipal rates, which top-out at $49 for 18-holes with a cart on summer weekends (it can be less, depending on date, day of the week, and time). [Read more…]

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In project management we can’t always be in control of the environment around us.  We can only forecast rather than predict risk and despite our ‘reasonable’ or even ‘best’ efforts to mitigate risk; shit happens and emergencies ensue!  It’s not just physical emergencies but also those related to time and cost; overbudget or late projects can create an emergency for stakeholders. Perhaps it’s because we tend to look at the ‘big risks’ or the ‘top ten’ after some semiquantitative assessment but then fail to consider that risks can change with time as more information becomes available.  Or, maybe it is because only those risks that can be clearly defined and are ‘likely’ are communicated to the eyes and ears on the ground.  Those low probability, high impact risks can tend to slip under any risk radar.

Then there is the matter of ‘optimism bias’ and a belief that ‘nothing can go wrong’ or that ‘risk only happens to other people’. Or perhaps, it’s just a matter of management not appreciating what is going on and ‘taking their eye off the ball’. [Read more…]