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A fault tree analysis (FTA) is a logical, graphical diagram that starts with an unwanted, undesirable, or anomalous state of a system.
The diagram then lays out the many possible faults and combination of faults within the subsystems, components, assemblies, software, and parts comprising the system which may lead to the top level unwanted fault condition. [Read more…]
Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)
There’s always a story that explains why an event is a “Black Swan” – after the fact. Where are the “Black Swan” prognosticators before events occur? I see “after the fact” articles and statements, such as, “we knew that was coming” or “we predicted this” – all after the fact. Generally projections and predictions seem never to hold sway until after the fact. Predictions and projections never seem to occur when the prognosticator specifies — is it just that the timing never seems to work out – until after the fact. From Nostradamus to the “Bible Code” we are enamored with predictions – after the fact. Does there seem to be a theme developing here? [Read more…]
The cost of maintenance destroys your capital investment returns.
When equipment is first selected the buyer has the choice to buy for quality and long trouble-free operating life or to buy based on least cost. The least cost choice will result in high maintenance and operating expense for the life of the equipment.
When net present value cost of maintenance for cheap equipment is calculated in today’s dollars investors will discover that a large part of their capital will never earn them income but will be spent on maintenance and repair.
Keywords: replacement asset value, internal rate of return, opportunity cost [Read more…]
Physical products are made up of materials.
The materials including metals, polymers, adhesives, and many others experience loads and stresses during assembly, transport, storage, and use.
Selecting the right materials such that they both meet the needs of the customer and are sufficiently reliable relies on understanding how the material will respond to the applied stresses over time.
As with parts selection, one way to determine if a material is suitable for your application and end use is to monitor the material’s performance over time in your products. The trouble is it also transfers the risk of failure (the unknown risk of failure) to the customer.
In many cases this is unacceptable. [Read more…]
Field data analysis starts with the collection of data.
In a previous article, we used a Nevada chart to gather the counts per month of field failure data. The chart also provides the necessary data to account for how many units have not failed as of yet.
The Nevada chart on its own is just a table of numbers and does not reveal patterns of the changing nature of failure rates over time. Are we experiencing early life failures or wear-out related failures?
We need to conduct some data analysis to learn what message the data contains. [Read more…]
Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)
Exposure to threats, hazards, and risks leads to vulnerabilities that an organization must deal with.
Commonly these are addressed via a mitigation process. Once mitigation is accomplished, often times the organization feels that the risk, threat, hazard does not need to be revisited. However, as a result of the mitigation efforts on the part of the organization, the risks, threats, hazards reconfigure and re-emerge in a different form.
In order for mitigation to be successful, it has to be a constant and ongoing process that produces a resilience to the negative effects of risks, threats, and hazards that are realized. [Read more…]
What readers will learn in this article:
A product or system may fail for many different reasons.
One cause is a faulty part. A component is susceptible to failure when either improperly used in the design or is a damaged or flawed component. [Read more…]
What is reliability management? Reliability Engineering? Would a product design or an organization benefit with a focus on reliability management and engineering? What is the value of a focus on reliability?
Any organization, that develops and produces products, has resource limits. It may be talent, capabilities, time, funding, or some combination of these.
Yet, the goal to create a product that meets customer expectations includes the concept of product reliability. The product should provide the expected functions over time, without failure. This expected product reliability occurs, even if the design requirements and advertising do not explicitly mention product reliability. [Read more…]
Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)
As the world approaches 7 billion in population this year, there is an ever-increasing demand for food, energy and a voice in how things are run. How do these changes affect business continuity planners, you may be asking?
The simple answer is, they will have far-reaching effects on how business continuity planning is conducted.
No longer can we be satisfied with the assurance that our “hot site” is available, or that we can maintain business operations in the face of a pandemic; or that we can deal with the aftermath of a natural disaster. [Read more…]
What readers will learn in this article:
Dusty surroundings are one of the most difficult environments for bearings.
In equipment handling powders or in processes generating dust the protection of bearings against contamination by fine particles requires special consideration. [Read more…]
Most everyone agrees that improving a product or process reliability is a good thing. It’s good for customers, factories, and our business. And sometimes it’s difficult to answer the question,
‘What is the value of that reliability activity?’
What if your boss asks you what value you provide to the organization? Your answer may to harder to compose than you think.
How would you quantify your skills, experience, and knowledge and your role within the complex formal and informal working environments? [Read more…]
Guest Post by Geary Sikich (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)
Introduction
There exists an overabundance of guidance for conducting risk assessments. Yet, it seems that we still have difficulty in getting risk assessments to reflect the appropriate level of concern for the identified risks that we are assessing. We also tend to view risk in relation to the place where we are employed and the industry that we work in. When we look at risk assessment from this perspective it should be clear that we are missing the point precisely, or at best, are being too narrowly focused, when it comes to assessing risk for our organizations. [Read more…]
What readers will learn in this article:
For the effective flow of a cohesive (sticks to itself) product, a chute must be designed to maintain momentum & velocity. [Read more…]
When products were crafted one at a time, the design and manufacturing process was often done by the same person. The craftsman would design and build a chest of drawers or carriage.
Some trades would employ apprentices to learn the craft, which included design. Larger projects may include an architect or lead designer along with a team of engineers.
Yet the shop or site for the railroad engineer or bridge was not far allowing close communication between the ironsmith and design team. [Read more…]
