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The Future of Production is Endless Risk Free Operation

The Future of Production is Endless Risk Free Operation

 The world needs plant and equipment that are reliable and fault-free for decades. Yet Maintenance can only keep machinery working by replacing broken and at risk parts. Even industrial asset management only aims to lower the cost of plant and equipment ownership. Neither methodology has the capability to deliver what mankind needs in future. Before the end of this century both disciplines will die-out because intelligent production machines will be made that are completely reliable and maintenance-free for their entire lifetimes.

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Great Leaders Focus on the Why, Not the How of Risk Management

Great Leaders Focus on the Why, Not the How of Risk Management

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Effective leaders provide their employees with a heartfelt portrayal of the WHY, a deep-rooted purpose, before defining the WHAT, the product or service, and then finally, the freedom on the HOW, which is the process.

First, understand the WHY of your solution. This gives you the line of thinking needed to decide HOW you can provide this solution in a way that is better than your competitors and more efficient for your customer.

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Weibull Distribution Part2: Three-Parameter Weibull, B10 life, Characteristic Life

Weibull Distribution Part2: Three-Parameter Weibull, B10 life, Characteristic Life

This is the second part of our two videos on Weibull Distribution. In this video, Hemant Urdhwareshe discusses few more concepts of Weibull Distribution, such as characteristic life, three-parameter Weibull and B10 life for Weibull Distribution. The concepts are explained with an application case study to calculate reliability using the Weibull Reliability function. The video would be useful to all those who want to learn applicability of Weibull Distribution to estimate reliability and to those who wish to take ASQ CRE, CQE, Six Sigma Black Belt and CMBB certification exams. In Weibull Distribution Part-1, Hemant had explained various basic concepts in Weibull Distribution with brief discussion on mathematical relationships.

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FINESSE Fishbone: The I Stands for Illustrate

FINESSE Fishbone: The I Stands for Illustrate

Technically trained professionals often get wrapped up in things like visualization, which distracts us from our mission. Our mission is to provide information to decision makers, and technical professionals are trusted advisors. So, most of our graphics, visuals, and videos should be informational. The I in FINESSE stands for Illustrate. Illustrate includes all the visuals, graphics, videos, and other media used in technical reports and presentations. These three tips and a short video provide focused examples.

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High MTBF with Low Reliability

High MTBF with Low Reliability

Can You Have a High MTBF and Low Reliability?

As regular readers know, MTBF by itself is misleading. It can also be deceptive when representing actual data. Just because you have a high MTBF value doesn’t mean it is reliable.

In a previous article, 10 Reasons to Avoid MTBF, I mentioned that it is possible to have a relatively high MTBF value when the actual reliability is low. Ashley sent me the following note:

Hi Fred, i love reading your articles they are very informative. I have a question about something you said in a comment which i am hoping you will be able to clarify for me. You said products with higher MTBF can actually be less reliable than products with a lower MTBF

I have tried to find information on how this is possible online, and tried to do the maths myself to make this happen but i have to admit i am struggling.

No worries, Ashley, let’s work out an example to illustrate what I meant. [Read more…]

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Stop Committing Industrial Suicide on Reliability Cliffs 

Stop Committing Industrial Suicide on Reliability Cliffs 

 Equipment and machinery reliability grows as machines are made more accurately and components kept in more perfect condition. Finesse and refinement practised on equipment parts extends equipment life by months, sometimes many months. Once you reach superb precision and work quality control your reliability growth bounds forward by years at a time. Conversely, when assembly accuracy is poor or parts’ environments are degraded you lose reliability at a rate of years at a time. In fact, the rate at which you lose reliability when component health is lost is as if you threw your machine from a cliff. Many industrial companies blindly commit industrial suicide daily by leaping off ‘reliability cliffs’. 

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Time: Friend or Foe, Risk or Opportunity?

Time: Friend or Foe, Risk or Opportunity?

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

“Time and tide wait for no man”.  King Canute demonstrated that the ebb and flow of the tide are inevitable and even a king has no control over them.  Time, perhaps our most precious resource, is also no exception.  Who hasn’t regretted not doing something because there wasn’t enough time, or time ran out as we wasted too much time deciding to do something and the opportunity slipped through our fingers? 

On the other hand, how often do we regret having made a hurried decision and have had to live with dire consequences which, in hindsight could well have been avoided if we’d had more time or rather, made better use of the time available.

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Key Teaching Principle # 7: Clarity

As covered in the first article in this series, Principles of Effective Teaching, reliability engineers, FMEA team leaders, and other quality and reliability professionals are often called upon to teach the principles of reliability or FMEA. Whether you are a student who wants to enhance your learning experience, an instructor who wants to improve teaching results, or an engineer who wishes to convey knowledge to another person, this series will offer practical knowledge and advice.

Speak with Clarity and Confidence

It isn’t about the words you say. It’s about the energetic message you send. Pete Carroll [Read more…]

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Opportunities for Maintenance and Operations: Alarms

George will be discussing basic opportunities for Maintenance and Operations. This is an 8 part video series that covers things such as eliminating nuisance alarms, looking into event rates, and how we develop PM Routes. This first video covers Alarms. What does opportunity look like from an alarm perspective? In most plants, it’s likely you have some type of building automation. Systems and Alarms can go through what is called a Pareto Analysis. Watch to learn more!

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Weibull Distribution Part-1

Weibull Distribution Part-1

This is the first of our two videos on Weibull Distribution. In this video, Hemant Urdhwareshe explains the basic concepts of Weibull Distribution, its cumulative and probability functions, hazard function and effect of shape parameter on these functions. Hemant also explains the related mathematical treatment briefly. The concepts are explained with an application case study of tires to calculate reliability within warranty period. The video additionally explains calculating probability of failure and reliability using Microsoft Excel functions. The videos would be useful to those who want to learn applicability of Weibull Distribution to estimate reliability and to those who wish to take ASQ CRE, CQE and CMBB certification exams.

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Dependency Concept in RAM Analysis

Dependency Concept in RAM Analysis

Assets or components in an operation can be dependent on each other. The network of equipment contributing to the operation output is complex and intricate. A RAM model helps account for the complexities including dependencies.

The fundamental purpose of Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) modeling is quantifying system performance, typically in a future interval of time. A system is a collection of items whose coordinated operation leads to the output, generally a production value. The collection of items includes subsystems, components, software, human operations, etc. For example, an automobile is a system. Its sub-components being the drivetrain, engine, gearbox, etc. In RAM models, it is crucial to account for relationships or dependencies between items. This helps determine the final output of the system. In various industries, RAM models have proven to be effective as cost avoidance or decision-making tools, as well as their ability to confirm or counter stated assumptions by internal stakeholders.

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How About Weibull Instead of MTBF?

How About Weibull Instead of MTBF?

What About Weibull? Can I Use it Instead of MTBF?

This was a follow-up question in a recent discussion with Alaa concerning using a metric other than MTBF.

The term ‘Weibull’ in some ways has become a synonym for reliability. Weibull analysis = life data (or reliability) analysis. The Weibull distribution has the capability to describe a changing failure rate, which is lacking when using just MTBF. Yet, is it suitable to use ‘Weibull’ as a metric? [Read more…]