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Home » Blog

by Fred Schenkelberg 10 Comments

First Impressions

First Impressions

Note: This first article in the NoMTBF campaign was published on April 1st, 2009. Thus, we’ve been at this and making progress for a long time and come a long was since starting the NoMTBF campaign. I am looking forward to your comments, contributions, and suggestions.

Fred

At first, MTBF seems like a commonly used and valuable measure of reliability. Trained as a statistician and understanding the use of the expected value that MTBF represented, I thought, ‘Cool, this is useful.’

Then, the discussions with engineers, technical sales folks, and other professionals about reliability using MTBF started. And the awareness that not everyone, and at times it seems very few, truly understood MTBF and how to properly use the measure.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, NoMTBF

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

2015 Recommended References Survey Results

This is the first annual survey to find what you recommend for those preparing for the ASQ CRE exam.

See the full list of reliability references for the CRE exam, for reliability and maintenance engineers at Accendo Reliability. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CRE Prep, CRE Preparation Notes

by Nancy Regan Leave a Comment

Are You Writing Failure Modes All Wrong? Learn the Truth

Are You Writing Failure Modes All Wrong? Learn the Truth

In this video, we’re testing our knowledge of how to write Failure Modes correctly — a crucial step in the Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) process. As my mentor John Moubray taught, we manage physical assets at the Failure Mode level, so it’s essential to get them right. I’ll walk you through a few examples to show what separates a properly written Failure Mode from a Failure Effect.

Learn how to identify specific Failure Modes that will help you get on the “right road” to creating safe and effective proactive maintenance tasks, intervals, and Default Strategies. Let’s dive in and see how well we know Failure Modes!

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Everyday RCM, on Maintenance Reliability

by Kerina Epperly Leave a Comment

Decoding Early Thermal Stress in Rotating Equipment

Decoding Early Thermal Stress in Rotating Equipment

Visual Inspections That Reveal Early Thermal Stress Damage

Thermal stress in components leads to premature failure. In the high-stakes world of industrial maintenance, the most dangerous failures are those that develop in silence. Thermally induced shaft damage typically does not announce itself with a sudden snap; rather, it matures through a progression of temperature gradients, mechanical constraints, and repeated thermal cycling. By the time cracks or permanent deformation become visible to the untrained eye, the window for low-cost intervention has usually closed.

Visual inspection and thermal imaging are both excellent non-destructive testing (NDT) techniques that detect impending failures early. In this article, we will discuss what to look for, what it means, and potential counter measures.


“Training site personnel to look for early indicators of thermal stress damage on shafts, couplings, and bearings is the single most effective way to prevent premature breakdown.”


[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, on Maintenance Reliability, The Reliability Crime Lab

by André-Michel Ferrari Leave a Comment

Multipopulation or Mixed Weibulls Overview

Multipopulation or Mixed Weibulls Overview

The Weibull distribution is a highly popular workhorse in Reliability Engineering. Sometimes a little too popular.  Its shape parameter (β) provides valuable information on the life characteristics of assets. In practice, a single Weibull distribution often fails to represent field or fleet data because the observed failures are not generated by only one homogeneous population. Instead, the data is frequently a blend of multiple underlying subpopulations. Relating to different designs, suppliers, duty cycles, environments, maintenance histories, etc. This is where multipopulation (mixture) Weibull models become valuable. They explicitly model heterogeneity rather than forcing one curve to “average out” incompatible behaviors. It is therefore incorrect to assume the population of failure times comes from a single Weibull distribution characterized by shape parameter 𝛽 and scale parameter 𝜂.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, on Maintenance Reliability, The Reliability Mindset

by JD Solomon Leave a Comment

Why Reliability Engineers Should Beware of Monte Carlo Analysis

Why Reliability Engineers Should Beware of Monte Carlo Analysis

Monte Carlo analysis has key limitations that make it a major concern for reliability programs. This is not to say that reliability engineers should not embrace Monte Carlo analysis – in fact, they should. Monte Carlo analysis is one of the key techniques for managing uncertainty. This article discusses four contradictions that every organization should be aware of (and beware) when applying to reliability programs and managing uncertainty. A balanced approach that combines qualitative and quantitative techniques is recommended.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Communicating with FINESSE, on Systems Thinking, Uncategorized

by Fred Schenkelberg Leave a Comment

4 Questions to Ask When Confronted with MTBF

4 Questions to Ask When Confronted with MTBF

MTBF comes up a bit too often. When it does I have found rolling my eyes and arguing against using MTBF is not very effective.

So, what should a knowing reliability professional do instead?

Let’s explore four questions that you can ask that may help others find the value in no longer talking about MTBF. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, NoMTBF

by Semion Gengrinovich Leave a Comment

Historical Data

Historical Data

Historical failure data is a goldmine of information for reliability engineers. It provides a window into the life cycle of products, revealing patterns and trends that can inform future designs and manufacturing processes. By analyzing this data, we can:

1. Identify common failure modes

2. Detect early life failures indicating quality or production issues

3. Determine the onset of wear-out stages

4. Predict time-to-failure for similar products

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, on Product Reliability, Reliability Knowledge

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Project: Intelligent Disobedience — Uncommon Sense

Project: Intelligent Disobedience — Uncommon Sense

Guest Post by Malcolm Peart (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Seeing eye dogs, or guide dogs, are so well trained that they know right from wrong.  Even though their ‘master’ gives an order the trained canine won’t obey unless it’s safe; and that’s what we call intelligent disobedience.  The dog is praised for exhibiting such behaviour.  However, in corporate and project management circles, and despite the need for human intelligence enhanced through training, qualifications and experience, such behaviour is often branded as just plain disobedient.

Many organisations have some set of rules and regulations which govern expected norms of behaviour.  They form part of an organisation’s culture and such ‘expectations’ become some form of ethical standard.  Great…when there is ‘business as usual’.  But in a crisis standard operating procedures tend not to apply.  These situations, as well as people, can become heated and with heat can come fire and the tell-tale smoke that things aren’t quite right.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CERM® Risk Insights, on Risk & Safety

by Mike Sondalini Leave a Comment

TRUE COST OF MAINTENANCE

TRUE COST OF MAINTENANCE

The true cost of maintenance to a company includes the lost production time, cost of utilities not used, overhead costs, handover costs and more.

A 6-step procedure that guides you and your organization, department, and team to analyze your business and operational risks, and develop an enterprise asset management system that is purpose-built to deliver your organization world class reliability.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Life Cycle Asset Management, on Maintenance Reliability

by James Reyes-Picknell Leave a Comment

Back to Basics? Really?

Back to Basics? Really?

Some managers resist outside help to make improvement in how they are managing reliability and maintenance. They think they can “get back to basics” first and then re-assess. They fail to see that if they could really do that on their own, they wouldn’t have allowed the slide to where they are today.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Conscious Asset, on Maintenance Reliability

by Nancy Regan Leave a Comment

3 Ways to Do RCM — And the Best Method Revealed!

3 Ways to Do RCM — And the Best Method Revealed!

In this video, we’re exploring the best way to conduct a Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) analysis. When it comes to RCM, there’s definitely a “recipe” for success that includes two key ingredients: firsthand knowledge of the equipment and its operating environment, and a strong understanding of RCM principles and how to apply them.

We’ll break down three common approaches to RCM—outsourcing, single analyst, and the facilitated working group approach. Discover why the facilitated working group approach stands out as the best way to ensure a comprehensive, effective RCM analysis. I’m Nancy Regan, and I hope you enjoy the video!

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Everyday RCM, on Maintenance Reliability

by Joe Anderson Leave a Comment

The Role of MRO and Stores in Our Framework

The Role of MRO and Stores in Our Framework

Maintenance, Repair, and Operations (MRO) and the management of spare parts inventory (stores) are often overlooked elements in a framework. However, they play a critical role in ensuring that maintenance teams have the right tools, parts, and materials needed to keep assets running efficiently. Without a well-structured MRO and stores strategy, even the most proactive maintenance programs can suffer from delays, unplanned downtime, and excessive costs.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, on Maintenance Reliability, ReliabilityXperience

by Kerina Epperly Leave a Comment

Engineering Resilience: Thermal Stress on Shafts

Engineering Resilience: Thermal Stress on Shafts

DYNAMICS OF HEAT IN COMMERCIAL PIZZA OVEN MECHANISMS

Thermal stress on shafts leads to premature failure. Understanding the factors that influence the bending forces of shafts and implementing counter measures can significantly increase their longevity.

Commercial pizza ovens are engineering marvels designed for a singular, high-intensity purpose: the rapid and consistent delivery of heat to dough and toppings. Operating at temperatures frequently exceeding 800 degrees Fahrenheit, these systems rely on a complex interplay of radiation, convection, and conduction. While the culinary focus is on the crust, the mechanical burden falls squarely on the internal components, most notably the heavy-duty shafts that drive conveyor systems and rotating decks. These components serve as the backbone of the operation, inside large, industrial-sized ovens where they undergo extensive temperature gradients.

In this article, we will observe the factors that influence bending forces and their countermeasures.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, on Maintenance Reliability, The Reliability Crime Lab

by JD Solomon Leave a Comment

Eight Important Insights Reliability Engineers Gain from Monte Carlo Analysis

Eight Important Insights Reliability Engineers Gain from Monte Carlo Analysis

Understanding system performance and total cost of ownership is fundamental to reliability programs for facilities and infrastructure. As reliability engineers know, all of our knowledge is about the past. All of our decisions are about the future. Monte Carlo analysis is our best tool for bridging our knowledge of the past with future uncertainties.

Monte Carlo analysis calculates the probability of outcomes by running multiple simulations using random variables. Analysis using Monte Carlo simulations aligns closely with reliability programs, in which thousands of assets vary in cost and decay rates by orders of magnitude. The power of most first-generation models using Monte Carlo simulations lies more in the insights than in the absolute values of the forecasts.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Communicating with FINESSE, on Systems Thinking Tagged With: Decision making, Forecasting, Monte Carlo, Monte Carlo Analysis, Value

by Semion Gengrinovich Leave a Comment

Reliability Importance During Design Phases

Reliability Importance During Design Phases

The Importance of Reliability in Product Development: A Case Study of an Electromechanical Valve for EV Battery Temperature Control. In the fast-evolving world of electric vehicles (EVs), the precision and reliability of components such as electromechanical valves are critical. These valves, which control the flow of coolant to manage battery temperature, must perform flawlessly under varying conditions. This article delves into the importance of reliability at each stage of product development, from design review to customer release, and highlights when a project might need to halt due to reliability concerns.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, on Product Reliability, Reliability Knowledge

by Fred Schenkelberg 7 Comments

Replace After MTTF Time To Avoid Failures – Right?

Replace After MTTF Time To Avoid Failures – Right?

Received a short question last week. The person writing seems to already know the answer, yet asked:

If we replace an item after a duration equal to the MTTF value, we would avoid failures, right?

Well, no, most likely not, was my response. What is your response? How would you answer this question? [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, NoMTBF

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