Identifying the right Failure Modes is an essential part of a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA). One of the criteria for including a Failure Mode in an FMEA is if the Failure Mode is unlikely to occur, but has severe consequences. Doing so puts you in a position of strength to decide what, or if anything at all, should be done proactively to manage it. [Read more…]
Nonparametric Forecasts From Left-Censored Data
“Component D” had some failures in its first 12 months. How many more would fail in 36-month warranty? ASQ’s Quality Progress Statistics Roundtable published the data and Weibull analysis. The data included left-censored failure counts collected at one calendar time. The Weibull analysis included actuarial failure forecasts. This article describes nonparametric alternatives to Weibull and quantifies extrapolation uncertainty. The nonparametric forecasts are larger than the Weibull forecasts. Alternative extrapolations of nonparametric failure rates from data subsets quantify uncertainty. [Read more…]
How Should the Sample Size be Selected for an X-bar Chart? (Part I)
The purpose of control charts is to detect significant process changes when they occur. In general, charts that display averages of data/measurements (X-bar charts) are more useful than charts of individual data points or measurements. Charts of individuals are not nearly as sensitive as charts of averages at detecting process changes quickly. X-bar charts are far superior at detecting process shifts in a timely manner, and the sample size is a crucial element in ensuring that appropriate chart signals are produced. [Read more…]
The Informative Run Chart
One of the very first plots to do with a string of data is a simple run plot. This plot provides information related to location, trends, patterns, and anomalies, The plot of the data over time is a rather informative chart.
You have most likely constructed many run charts; if not you really should. This short introduction to the run chart will cover creating and interpreting them. Plus we’ll mention a few cautions and tips, as well. [Read more…]
Same old reliability lessons from amazing new (solar cell) technologies
There are plenty of reasons for renewable energy to become increasingly important. These reasons start with climate change and end with our unmistakably finite amount of fossil fuels buried in our fragile planet. One of the early criticisms of renewable energy was that it wasn’t cheap. Sure – the energy sources such as sunlight, wind and flowing water are inherently renewable, but the costs to manufacture and maintain all the equipment that extracts energy from these resources can be very high. [Read more…]
Showcase Your Reliability Accomplishments Well
When a reliability engineer or manager does their job well, the product just works as expected. Maybe even a little better than expected. There isn’t any major problems that need a hero to resolve.
Work done well, may go unnoticed. To avoid that you need to master the art of promoting successes without coming across as bragging or boasting. For your career advancement, you need to be both successful and likable.
For your program and ability to influence outcomes, you also need to be seen as successful, valuable, and again likable. [Read more…]
What is Prescriptive Maintenance?
Understanding What Comes After Predictive Maintenance
Imagine being able to adjust your maintenance actions on the fly to provide the exact maintenance where and when it is needed. However, you are not reacting to significant changes in the condition of the equipment (like PdM), but instead, you are taking many sources of information in real-time from the equipment using Internet of Things (IoT) and using analytics to analyze and understand the condition of the equipment. This allows for a flexible maintenance strategy in which maintenance is only applied when and where it is needed. This virtually eliminates the traditional PM Schedule. This type of maintenance is available now, and it is called Prescriptive Maintenance. [Read more…]
Most Commonly Underused CMMS Features
Want to achieve a worthwhile return-on-investment (ROI) from your software? Then it’s important to learn about some of the most commonly underused computerized maintenance management system (CMMS) functions. Many organizations do not use all of the features their preventive maintenance software provides, or don’t use the functions to their full capacity. In fact, a majority of plant maintenance managers feel they aren’t using their preventive maintenance software to its maximum capability.
Modern-day CMMS systems are crammed with various features, and users don’t necessarily need to access and master every feature of the system. However, it becomes a problem when users get so comfortable with their way of doing things that they avoid features they’re not familiar with. Especially if those features could potentially improve their productivity. Understanding what impact underutilized CMMS functions can have on your maintenance department will help you make the most of your software.
This is the Best Time to do your Corporate Planning Differently
Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)
Steve Jobs envisioned a future state with computers on every worker’s desk. It will be a progressive culture where technology creates more opportunities for employees and a workplace without secretaries.
The future-state for Jobs was about “building tools that amplify a human ability”. He used the word “tools”, not “computers”, at the start of Apple’s life, which became hugely successful.
That is why Apple came up with the iPod, iPhone, and iTunes. These tools revolutionised the way we listen to music. Many people didn’t know they wanted an iPad until Apple showed them these tools. [Read more…]
Entropy and Economics – Part 2
Entropy and economics, like entropy and maintenance, are related. In part 1 there is a simple 3 legged stool model: design, maintenance, and operations being its 3 legs. It can deliver high performance at low cost and risk – i.e.: high productivity. It is important to keep the legs balanced and indeed intact! Doing so requires a bit of investment. In thermodynamic terms, we need to put some energy into the system to keep the entropy from growing. That energy is an investment in maintenance and the payoff comes in the form of steady, predictable revenues with a high margin for profit. Those words should be music to accountants’ ears. [Read more…]
Are you protected…?
What is a Protective Device? Why are Protective Devices important? And how do you properly take care of them? Watch as I explain all three. [Read more…]
How do I know what product or process characteristics to control?
While the construction of control charts is relatively straight-forward, often a more difficult question is “how do I know what process characteristic to control in the first place?” Clearly, controlling “everything” is not feasible or a smart use of limited resources. [Read more…]
Actuarial Forecasts, Least Squares Reliability, and Martingales
I learned actuarial methods working for the USAF Logistics Command. We used actuarial rates to forecast demands and recommend stock levels for expensive engines tracked by serial number, hours, and cycles. I had a hunch that actuarial methods could be applied to all service parts, without life data. [Read more…]
How to not do supplier relationships
You can’t win wars where your allies are also your enemies
Steve Tengler from Forbes Magazine recently wrote about how Audi was improving the reliability and quality of its cars … by helping its suppliers. And while I wished he had a little more robustness behind his conclusions, he reinforced just how important it is to focus on who makes your products and not just what they make. [Read more…]
Materials and Design Risk
The materials used in new equipment can pose a design risk. But what makes a material a design risk? And how is de-risking achieved for metallic and nonmetallic materials?
To satisfy design requirements for loading, corrosion resistance, and manufacturability, materials properties must be controlled. Design risk is high when material properties are not controlled and materials are not selected using best practices. And as stated in Equipment Risk, material stability is also necessary for long service life, meaning that mechanical and physical property response to elevated temperature and corrosive media is predictable or reasonably estimated. Thus, controls for material properties and selection are the basis of de-risking. [Read more…]