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All articles listed in reverse chronological order.

by Larry George 1 Comment

Variance of the Kaplan-Meier Estimator?

Variance of the Kaplan-Meier Estimator?

The well-known variance of the Kaplan-Meier reliability function estimator [Greenwoood, Wikipedia] can drastically under-or over-estimate variance. The covariances of the Kaplan-Meier reliability pairs at different ages are ignored or neglected. Variance errors and covariance neglect bias the variance of actuarial demand forecasts. Imagine what errors and neglect do to confidence bands on reliability functions.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, on Tools & Techniques, Progress in Field Reliability?

by Michael Pfeifer, Ph.D., P.E. 4 Comments

Improving Fatigue Resistance

Improving Fatigue Resistance

Fatigue involves localized, permanent damage to metals exposed to cyclic stress. In a previous article I discussed the fatigue mechanism. This article covers factors that can be addressed to improve high-cycle fatigue life

Factors that influence fatigue life

Several design, material, and fabrication factors influence component and joint fatigue life, including the following: [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Metals Engineering and Product Reliability, on Product Reliability

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

A Model for Deciding under Risk and Uncertainty

A Model for Deciding under Risk and Uncertainty

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM Â® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In Part 1, we looked at the two relevant dimensions for decision-making under certainty, risk, and uncertainty that form the certainty-uncertainty spectrum are:

  1. Degree of certainty – It ranges from close to certainty to far from certainty.
  2. Level of predictability and control – It moves from close to predictability and control to far from predictability and control.
[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CERM® Risk Insights, on Risk & Safety

by Karl Burnett 1 Comment

The Maintenance Career of Diarist Samual Pepys

The Maintenance Career of Diarist Samual Pepys

Samuel Pepys is famous for keeping a diary from 1660 to 1669. He recorded details of everyday life in London during the Restoration period, including firsthand accounts of the plague and the Great Fire of London. Pepys spent most of his career managing the Royal Navy’s logistics and shipbuilding programs during the second, third, and fourth Dutch wars. From 1673 to 1679, he was the Secretary for the Admiralty. He fought bureaucratic waste and endemic bribery while building the so-called “Thirty New Ships” of 1677. After infighting between political factions, Pepys resigned in 1679 to face trial for corruption himself.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, History of Maintenance Management, on Maintenance Reliability

by Mike Sondalini Leave a Comment

Condition Monitoring that Supports Precision Maintenance

Condition Monitoring that Supports Precision Maintenance

A slidedeck by Mike Sondalini for the SIRFRt CM & Lube Forum 2010 Conference.

Mike examines precision maintenance and the supporting condition monitoring with definitions, processes, and examples.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Maintenance Management, on Maintenance Reliability

by Ray Harkins Leave a Comment

Deriving the Role of the Reliability Manager

Deriving the Role of the Reliability Manager

Having worked in manufacturing quality for the great majority of my career, with a few tentacles into the field of reliability, I’ve considered many comparisons between the two fields, with of course, my unconscious biases favoring quality. One interesting comparison, for instance, is between job postings for similar positions in these related fields.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, on Tools & Techniques, The Manufacturing Academy

by Sanjeev Saraf Leave a Comment

Near-Miss(Es)!!!

Near-Miss(Es)!!!

A friend of mine, Dr. Ben Thomas, recently forwarded me a video showing a man escaping incident in matter of seconds.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, on Risk & Safety, Operational Risk Process Safety

by Greg Hutchins Leave a Comment

Decision-Making Under Certainty, Uncertainty, and Risk

Decision-Making Under Certainty, Uncertainty, and Risk

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

In Part 1 of this series, we looked at the two relevant dimensions for decision-making under certainty, risk, and uncertainty that form the certainty-uncertainty spectrum are:

  1. Degree of certainty – It ranges from close to certainty to far from certainty.
  2. Level of predictability and control – It moves from close to predictability and control to far from predictability and control.

Based on these two dimensions, in this Part2, we will be looking at the three conditions along the certainty-uncertainty spectrum that you will face when making decisions under certainty, risk, and uncertainty.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CERM® Risk Insights, on Risk & Safety

by Mike Sondalini Leave a Comment

How Industrial Operations use Plant Wellness Way to get World-class Production

How Industrial Operations use Plant Wellness Way to get World-class Production

An Executive Report for CEO’s, Executives, and Senior managers in industry and manufacturing.

Utmost operating profits, lowest maintenance costs, world class reliability, & outstandingly effective physical asset management the Plant Wellness Way

Let a Plant Wellness Way EAM System-of-Reliability halve your Annual Maintenance Costs

In the Plant Wellness Way (PWW) you do nothing to your business until you have total confidence that what you do, and how it will be done, will be extraordinarily successful.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Life Cycle Asset Management, on Maintenance Reliability

by Larry George 1 Comment

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) and Reliability?

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) and Reliability?

My first task at Apple Computer was to recommend the warranty duration for the Apple II computer. Apple didn’t have a warranty! So, I looked at competitors’ warranties and recommended the same, one year. I wish I had known Apple’s computers’ and service parts’ reliabilities before that recommendation; I would have used actuarial forecasts of warranty returns to compare alternative warranties. Apple’s hardware warranty is still one year. Is that equitable to Apple, its customers, and society?

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, on Tools & Techniques, Progress in Field Reliability?

by George Williams Leave a Comment

Self-Leadership Part 2

Self-Leadership Part 2

Self-leadership is the constant step of focusing on forward motion, and taking out your compass to make sure you’re always still heading north. Constant action in the wrong direction can be just as harmful as standing still, sometimes worse.

This is a constant three step process. As your journey keeps moving forward, you need to keep checking your sails to make sure the wind is moving you in any direction: this is self-leadership.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, on Maintenance Reliability, ReliabilityXperience

by Sanjeev Saraf Leave a Comment

Is Workplace Safety Merely Common Sense?

Is Workplace Safety Merely Common Sense?

Surprisingly, many organization and professionals believe that safety can be achieved by common sense. Here is an excellent article from Kevin Jones’ Safety at Work blog about common sense and safety:

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, on Risk & Safety, Operational Risk Process Safety

by Bryan Christiansen Leave a Comment

How To Use CMMS To Support FRACAS Methodology

How To Use CMMS To Support FRACAS Methodology

Organizations can face a wide range of failure problems, ranging from technical to process failures. These common failures include equipment breakdowns, product failure, quality issues, and environmental incidents. These failures typically require a more systematic approach. This involves failure tracking and corrective measures implementation — in comes the FRACAS methodology. 

The FRACAS process tracks and manages failures and problems in products or systems. Almost every industry uses this approach. The goal of FRACAS is to uncover the cause of errors and take corrective action to avoid similar occurrences in the future. The process of FRACAS involves failure documentation, conducting failure examination, corrective measures implementation, and continually seeking ways to enhance the process. [Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, CMMS and Reliability, on Maintenance Reliability Tagged With: CMMS, FRACAS

by Fred Schenkelberg 1 Comment

First Steps with Data

First Steps with Data

Once word got out that I was taking graduate-level courses in statistics, I dreaded the knock on the door. Colleagues, some of which I knew and others from some far reach of the company, would ask if I could take a look at their data. I didn’t learn the necessary first steps with a stack of data in class.

I’ve lost count of the number of data sets I’ve reviewed and analyzed. I know there are important considerations and questions before creating the first plot. Let’s review the essential first steps you should take when presented with data.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Musings on Reliability and Maintenance Topics, on Product Reliability

by JD Solomon Leave a Comment

The #1 Thing Facilitators and Technical Experts Get Wrong About Qualitative Assessments

The #1 Thing Facilitators and Technical Experts Get Wrong About Qualitative Assessments

A facilitator leads a group of participants to solutions that are created, understood, and accepted by all. Effective facilitation cannot be achieved without the role of people and social sciences. Understanding Likert scales as a viable technique is necessary to improve qualitative assessments, including risk assessments, condition assessments, and prioritization.

Likert scales were originally developed by Rensis Likert, who was concerned with measuring psychological attitudes and wished to do this in a “scientific” way. Specifically, he sought a method to produce attitude measures that could reasonably be interpreted as measurements on a proper metric scale, such as a thermometer.

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Articles, Communicating with FINESSE, on Systems Thinking

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