
I am often asked for my opinion about the FMEA Handbook that was jointly published by AIAG and VDA in 2019. Here is a summary of my candid views on this handbook, excerpted from a presentation I gave at the 2019 Guangbin Yang Reliability Symposium.
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I am often asked for my opinion about the FMEA Handbook that was jointly published by AIAG and VDA in 2019. Here is a summary of my candid views on this handbook, excerpted from a presentation I gave at the 2019 Guangbin Yang Reliability Symposium.

ANSI-IES TM-21 standard method may predict negative L70 LED lives. (L70 is the age at which LED lumens output has deteriorated to less than 70% of initial lumens.) Philips-Lumileds deserves credit for publishing the data that inspired an alternative L70 reliability estimation method based on geometric Brownian motion of stock prices in the Black-Scholes-Merton options price model. This gives the inverse Gauss distribution of L70 for LEDs.
[Read more…]by Ray Harkins Leave a Comment

As a teenager in the 1980s, I was an avid reader of Omni, a now defunct magazine dedicated to the future—a far-off world filled with super humans, artificial biospheres and frequent encounters with extraterrestrial beings. Omni catered to armchair futurists like me with science and science fiction stories by A-level writers like Bernard Dixon and William Burroughs.
Future-oriented mass media such as Omni and “Star Wars” gives its consumers a plausible vision of everyday life for future generations. What these sources don’t typically deliver, though, is the path of change to get there.
[Read more…]by Ray Harkins Leave a Comment

Everyone working in a decision-making role has at least an intuitive understanding of the concept of opportunity costs-the value of the thing you didn’t choose. Simply stated, when you say ‘Yes’ to one thing, you simultaneously say ‘No’ to everything else you could have chosen instead. And those things to which you say ‘No’ have a value that you’re relinquishing. When I was a teenager, I heard an older gentleman quip, “When I said ‘I do’ to my wife, I was also saying ‘I don’t’ to all the other girls out there”. That man understood opportunity cost.
[Read more…]Leading is about learning to be a facilitator – Ashif Shaikh
Ask yourself, when teams work very well together, what are the positive characteristics of the team leader? When teams are dysfunctional, and have poor outcomes, what skills of the leader need to be improved?
Giving proper feedback is a great way to help a colleague improve FMEA facilitation skills. Carefully listening to feedback from a colleague is an important way to improve one’s own FMEA facilitation skills. Both are aided by understanding and using facilitation quality objectives. [Read more…]

“Aircraft LRUs test NFF (No-Failure-Found) approximately 50% of the time” {Anderson] Wabash Magnetics claimed returned crankshaft position sensors had 89-90% NTF (No-Trouble-Found), Uniphase had 20%, Apple computer had 50% [George].
[Read more…]by Ray Harkins Leave a Comment

As the quality manger for a tier two automotive supplier, I recently had the opportunity to hire a quality supervisor following the retirement of a long-time member of our team. Our company’s human resource manager and I worked together through the entire selection process. Given the status of our region’s economy and the recent closure of several large factories, I wasn’t surprised when our mailbox started filling up with resumes in response to ads on the popular Internet job sites. The typical respondent was a mid-career professional with over 15 years of experience in manufacturing that had either been recently laid-off due or who wanted to move up in their career.
[Read more…]by Larry George Leave a Comment

How is failure testing done on the Space Station? Could FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) be used in reverse to detect multiple failures given symptoms? That’s what NASA was programming in the 1990s. I proposed that the ratios P[part failure]/(part test time) be used to optimally sequence tests. Those ratios work if there are multiple failures, as long as failure rates are constant and failure times are statistically independent.
[Read more…]by Ray Harkins Leave a Comment

Abraham Lincoln taught the value of adequate preparation when he said, “Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.” By training, quality professionals are often focused on verifying the correctness of a product. A traditional inspector at the Lincoln Timber Company might have dutifully marked in her audit log the date and time, the type and size of tree, followed by the comment, “Cut down.”
But Honest Abe would have advised her to take a closer look at the tools and process used to complete the job.
[Read more…]by Larry George Leave a Comment

Shotgun repair is trying to fix a system problem by replacing parts until the problem goes away. It is often done without regard to parts’ age-specific reliability information. Should you test before replacement? Which test(s) should you do? In which order? How long? Which part should you replace next if the test gave no indication of what’s wrong? What if test indication is imperfect or the fault is intermittent? What if there are more than one part failure?
[Read more…]by Carl S. Carlson Leave a Comment

“A genuine leader is not a searcher for consensus but a molder of consensus.”
Martin Luther King
One of the challenges for any team leader is bringing the team together and agreeing on decisions and actions going forward.
Consensus building is the best practice for all of the FMEA team decisions. This means the FMEA team takes the time to understand all sides of an issue and finds a solution or determines a course of action that is supported by all team members. Facilitating is a consensual activity.
by Ray Harkins Leave a Comment

With all the buzz these days about design thinking, some of you may be wondering what it’s all about. How does it relate to design? And what can non-designers gain from it?
Design thinking is far more than simply designing products and services—it’s an approach to problem-solving that can be applied to an incredibly wide range of applications.
[Read more…]
Which of these six failure rate functions do your products and their service parts have? You don’t know? You don’t have field reliability lifetime data by product name or part serial number? That’s OK. Lifetime data are not required to estimate and classify failure-rate functions, including attrition and retirement. GAAP requires statistically sufficient field reliability data to classify failure rate functions for RCM.
[Read more…]
COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is easy to estimate: CFR=deaths/cases. Regression forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths are easy but complicated by variants and nonlinearity. Epidemiologists use SIR models (Susceptible, Infectious, and “Removed”) to estimate Ro. These are baseball statistics. Reliability people need age-specific reliability and failure-rate function estimates, by failure mode, to diagnose problems, recommend spares, plan maintenance, do risk analyses, etc. Markov models use actuarial transition rates.
[Read more…]by Carl S. Carlson Leave a Comment

“Once you make a decision, the universe conspires to make it happen.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson
There are times when an FMEA facilitator has difficulty arriving at consensus with the FMEA team. This sometimes happens when there are two or more competing ideas or solutions and members of the team feel strongly about their personal idea or solution. One tool that can be used to solve this problem is called Pugh Analysis, a type of decision matrix.
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