
Reliability Predictions and FMEA Occurrence
Abstract
Carl and Fred discussing a reader question about FMEAs. Specifically, whether reliability predictions (for similar systems) are valid input to the Occurrence rating in an FMEA.
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Your Reliability Engineering Professional Development Site
Author of Inside FMEA articles, FMEA Resources page, and multiple books, and a co-host on Speaking of Reliability.
This author's archive lists contributions of articles and episodes.
by Carl S. Carlson Leave a Comment

Carl and Fred discussing a reader question about FMEAs. Specifically, whether reliability predictions (for similar systems) are valid input to the Occurrence rating in an FMEA.
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Did you know that early FMEA standards did not include recommendations to reduce risk? They limited the analysis to the technical risk, without making specific recommendations. The first time I am aware of that an FMEA standard added a column called “Recommended Actions” was in 1993. Thankfully, it is common practice today to include Recommended Actions in FMEAs.
But what makes for excellent Recommended Actions and what is their role in an FMEA? We’ll begin with the fundamentals.
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Carl and Fred discussing the second step in achieving high reliability: “Develop a Reliability Gap Assessment.”
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Carl and Fred discussing the first step in achieving high reliability: “Develop a Reliability Strategic Vision.”
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Every FMEA team needs to prioritize risk as part of the procedure. Why? Because companies or organizations have limited resources that must be focused on highest risk. The question becomes, by what method should we prioritize the risk identified in an FMEA?
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One of the more challenging aspects of FMEA is the subject of Occurrence. Part of every FMEA standard or procedure is the assessment of Occurrence based on an agreed-upon scale. Here are some pointers for when and how to use occurrence in an FMEA.
We’ll start with a definition. The Oxford English dictionary defines “occurrence” as “the fact or frequency of something happening.”

Carl and Fred discussing the broad subject of assumptions, and how they impact reliability analysis and applications. When are assumptions good and when are they questionable?
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Carl and Fred discussing a question received by an Inside FMEA reader on the subject of FMEA occurrence rating.
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I am often asked about the application of detection in FMEAs. When and how to assess for the risk of detection can be confusing. Here are some pointers for when and how to use detection in an FMEA.
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As we celebrate the new year, I am republishing an article I wrote last year, titled “The Future of Reliability Engineering,” as part of the Inside FMEA series. This article applies equally well to FMEA, as you will see.
Sometime in 2023, I will write an article titled “The Future of FMEA.” But, first, I want to hear from readers. Please write me with your ideas on what should be included in the future of FMEA. You can reach me at Carl.Carlson@EffectiveFMEAs.com
Wishing everyone on Accendo Reliability a happy and healthy new year, and best wishes for high reliability and effective FMEAs!
“Destiny is no matter of chance. It is a matter of choice. It is not a thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved.” – William Jennings Bryan

I am often asked for my opinion about the FMEA Handbook that was jointly published by AIAG and VDA in 2019. Here is a summary of my candid views on this handbook, excerpted from a presentation I gave at the 2019 Guangbin Yang Reliability Symposium.
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Carl and Fred discussing what brings enjoyment to one’s life and work, and how to explore and learn, with curiosity.
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Leading is about learning to be a facilitator – Ashif Shaikh
Ask yourself, when teams work very well together, what are the positive characteristics of the team leader? When teams are dysfunctional, and have poor outcomes, what skills of the leader need to be improved?
Giving proper feedback is a great way to help a colleague improve FMEA facilitation skills. Carefully listening to feedback from a colleague is an important way to improve one’s own FMEA facilitation skills. Both are aided by understanding and using facilitation quality objectives. [Read more…]
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Carl and Fred discussing advice for experienced engineers who are looking to change jobs or companies.
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