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Introduction to the Delphi Method

Introduction to the Delphi Method

As reliability professionals, we are in the business of estimating or forecasting the reliability performance of our product, equipment, or system. While we use a range of tools to analytically make these estimates, sometimes we do not have sufficient data or information.

One method is to ask another person that has knowledge of the particular technology, use conditions, or whatever is hampering our work. If you ask two people you most like will get two different answers. If you ask 10, 10 different answers.

One way to work with a group of subject matter experts is to conduct a structured communication technique called the Delphi Method. [Read more…]

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Trick Question: Do You Want Value or Low Costs?

Trick Question: Do You Want Value or Low Costs?

If you can’t sell all you can produce, then reducing costs is often the only way to improve margins, but that simplistic accounting perspective is not always the case. Cost control is often thought to be key to attaining profitability but it the case of maintenance it can get you into trouble. Cost control can have a big opportunity cost if you don’t take advantage of the opportunities you have. Consider that what you might really want is greater value – more for less, no just less. [Read more…]

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Strategy + Execution = Success

Strategy + Execution = Success

Guest Post by Patrick Ow (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

As COVID-19 has disrupted life all over the globe, organisations are forced to significantly change and adapt to the ever-changing customer attitudes and preferences resulting from the pandemic.

The competitive playing field and business environment have been reset. It is now back to square one for many businesses. Businesses have to operate like a start-up, big and small. And they have to start at the same time when governments relax their social isolation requirements. [Read more…]

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Emerging Trends in Facilities Management

Emerging Trends in Facilities Management

Manufacturing companies are struggling with the persistent and growing problem of finding employees with the skills needed to sustain and grow their businesses. This problem is commonly called the “skills gap.” Experts estimate that this skills gap may leave 2.4 million manufacturing positions unfilled through 2028, with a potential economic impact of $2.5 trillion (Deloitte 2018).

One of the key drivers of this gap is the rapid influx of technology into every aspect of manufacturing. New technology of course, requires new skills. In a 2019 article published by McKinsey, analysts identified six emerging trends in facilities management, each requiring new skills and each offering opportunities for career growth. (Adhikari, 2019) [Read more…]

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Improving Reliability with Good Judgment

Improving Reliability with Good Judgment

At an early concept meeting discussing the technical strategy for the new product, the engineering teams were at an impasse. The decision matrix balanced out with three distinct options. Product reliability differed slightly with each option yet presented risks just as the considerations of cost, complexity, feature set, and time to market.

The project manager, the leader of the development program, asked a few questions, asked for input from the director of engineering, and selected a path forward.

The team accepted the decision. The project went well. Yet, I’ve often wondered how did she know which option to select. I also learned to trust her judgment on difficult decisions. [Read more…]

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Root Cause Analysis: Investment or Expense?

Root Cause Analysis: Investment or Expense?

In times that promise to be a financial challenge for many corporations, we must make decisions as to where to invest our scarce dollars and where to cut from our current operations.  When faced with these decisions, we must be realistic and pragmatic about how short-term decisions impact our long-term goals.  Yes, when times are hard, how well positioned will we be when the economy picks up (and keep the faith, it will pick up)? [Read more…]

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Frac Plug Reliability

Frac Plug Reliability

Frac plugs create a seal with the inner diameter of the casing. With the frac ball on seat in the frac plug, a check valve is formed in the casing which resists fracturing pressures up to 15,000 psi. Composite frac plugs use substantially composite components and rubber seals. Degradable frac plugs use components manufactured from magnesium (Mg) alloys. [Read more…]

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Reliability … and why always asking ‘are we there yet’ doesn’t work

Reliability … and why always asking ‘are we there yet’ doesn’t work

A common refrain from managers and engineers alike (as it relates to making or maintaining reliable products) is:

How do we know if we are there yet?

This makes reliability engineering sound like driving a car, sanding a piece of wood, mowing the lawn, or any other endeavour where efforts perfectly align with progress.

This doesn’t work for reliability. Reliability can be easy to achieve, but it needs to be thought about in a different way. And when you do, everything becomes easier. [Read more…]

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The Top 3 Analysis Techniques To Use When Performing a PM Optimization

Performing a PM Optimization is not always as simple as it sounds.  Often a Maintenance Planner will assemble a team of technicians to ask what is value-added and what is missing from a PM Routine.   While these may be good questions to ask before diving into an analysis, or after an analysis, it does not base the answers on data.   Basing the PM Routine on data, not intuition is critical to the long-term success of any organization.

To perform a PM Optimization, there are three main types of analysis to focus on the effectiveness of any PM Routine.  The specific analysis used will depend on how mature (or effective) the current PM Routine is, and on the specific type of failures that the PM Routine is trying to address.

[Read more…]

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New Project Framework for Long Duration Projects

New Project Framework for Long Duration Projects

Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

The Central Artery/Tunnel Project, known as the Big Dig in Boston, originally was planned to take 10 years to complete for a budget of $2.5B. It actually took 30 years and cost $14.8 B.  The traditional project framework used was inadequate for a long duration project. A new project framework, I call Adaptive Rolling Wave, is needed. It is a combination of the Adaptive Project and Rolling Wave framework, that is more suited for a long duration project because it breaks down the project into a number of smaller projects. [Read more…]

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The Impact of Industrial Automation on Machine Reliability

The Impact of Industrial Automation on Machine Reliability

Setting up industrial operations is part of the capital expenditure a business has to undertake. Businesses now analyze the lifetime cost of any capital expenditure before making a decision. This includes the inventory cost, labor expenses, maintenance costs, cost incurred due to expected downtime, and expenses for upgrades. This tilts the decision in favor of options that provide long-term machine reliability and reduced maintenance.

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The “3 P’s” – Avoiding the Most Common Pitfalls of Establishing a Reliability Program

The “3 P’s” – Avoiding the Most Common Pitfalls of Establishing a Reliability Program

I often talk to engineers who have just been told that they are now a ‘reliability guy or girl’ for their organization. The CEO or perhaps a director decides that reliability is now important, so a group of poor unfortunates are hastily and collectively anointed as ‘the’ reliability program. Is this familiar?

Sometimes this works. Sometimes these rebranded ‘reliability guys and girls’ create amazing programs that [Read more…]