The title was inspired by Rupert Miller’s report “What Price Kaplan Meier?” That report compares nonparametric vs. parametric reliability estimators from censored age-at-failure data. This article compares alternative, nonparametric estimators from different data: grouped, censored age-at-failure data vs. population ships and returns data required by generally accepted accounting principles. This article compares data storage and collection requirements and costs, and bias, precision, and information of nonparametric reliability estimators.
[Read more…]From Maker to Manager, Part 2: Becoming a Lifelong Learner
The first and most important aptitude needed to move from a maker mentality to a management or leadership mentality is that of a lifelong learner.
Now, I’ve heard plenty of people say, “I learn something new every day.” And it’s a cute adage. But watching the History Channel or scrolling mindlessly through YouTube videos won’t likely produce a leadership mindset.
Instead, lifelong learning is an ongoing, self-motivated journey of acquiring new, particularly in-demand skills. Lifelong learners develop and employ strategies and plans to acquire new career skills. These plans may involve returning to university to acquire a new degree, but they certainly don’t have to.
[Read more…]Reliability and Sabotage the CIA Way
During World War Two, the Office of Special Services (OSS), the forerunner of today’s Central Intelligence Agency, compiled a manual on how to ruin a factory’s output without explosives. Their main weapon was bad maintenance.
The manual described ways that transportation and industrial workers could do their jobs but intentionally damage their plant and organization. The main idea was to do their jobs poorly, in a way where bad workmanship was plausibly accidental. Some of the targets were boilers, housekeeping, turbines, fusing, motors, tools, building heat, fuel storage, and lubricating oil systems.
[Read more…]When Rules are Made to be Broken!
With twenty plus years of working with companies around the world, I’ve been witness to some incredible improvements. From a small company that was still working with paper work orders to large companies who struggled to make sense of their CMMS, the common thread for those who realized success was the discipline to implement and perform their RCM (Reliability Centered Maintenance) tasks.
[Read more…]What’s Wrong with the Term “Root Cause”?
There is great variation when it comes to a common understanding of the term ‘Root Cause Analysis’ or RCA.
In a previous, lengthy paper, I wrote an article entitled “The Stigma of RCA: What’s In a Name?“. It focused on common understandings (or misunderstandings) of what RCA means and then described the basic steps of any investigative occupation. I just left it up to the reader to determine if their ‘RCA’ approach had room for improvement.
[Read more…]Acid Sparge and Acid Sparging
Acid Sparge And Acid Sparging. When you want to introduce acid directly into a liquid below its surface a sparge pipe is used. It is necessary to select materials that are compatible with the chemicals and the process. This article explains the issues to address when selecting the sparge pipe materials for injecting acid into a process reactor and what to consider when designing and installing the sparge pipe into such vessels or tanks.
[Read more…]Cost Risk is a Major Reason for Project Failures
Guest Post by John Ayers (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)
Studies show most projects fail due to poor management of known risks. The known risks on a project are:
- Scope.
- Schedule.
- Cost.
- Quality.
Generally speaking, cost problems are due to insufficient budget, poor budget control, and poor planning. How to minimize the cost (budget) risk on a project is addressed in this paper. The approach to do this is based on my 30 years of project and project risk management experience and knowledge.
[Read more…]Look before you leap – part 2
Tech is needed, but do not focus only on the tool – implementation is key. For my musical aspirations that means the acquisition of a tool (the instrument), making sure it is set up correctly (tuning and positioning), investment in lessons and practice, using it regularly, and eventually, someone will tell me it sounds good. That’s my goal, and incidentally, I’m not there yet.
[Read more…]Why didn’t you ask before running all those tests?
The title is a Statistician’s Lament. “Design of Experiments (DoE) is the design of any task that aims to describe or explain the variation of information under conditions that are hypothesized to reflect the variation.” [Wikipedia] Are you using DoE to design reliability tests? What do PH, GMDH, and |D|-optimality have to do with design of DoE of reliability tests?
[Read more…]Self Awareness
The first step in any forward progress needs to be identifying the reality of where you are right now. If you’re trying to get to the North Pole, it doesn’t matter what map you’re given, if you don’t know where you’re starting.
This is a difficult conversation to have with yourself, but it is the foundation of a solid framework for success and is absolutely critical for any sustainable forward motion.
There are two types of self-awareness that need to be expanded on: Internal Self-Awareness and External Self-Awareness.
[Read more…]Lognormal Probability Plots
Introduction
In general, a statistical analysis of univariate data starts with a histogram. If the histogram doesn’t show a bell shape, the data probably does not follow a normal distribution. If the logarithm of the data plots as a normal histogram, then the data is lognormally distributed. Any statistical projections and parameter estimates are based on the normal distribution of the log of the data. This article focuses on the lognormal distribution and the lognormal probability plot.
How to Estimate the Stochastic Performance of your Production System in 5 Minutes
“Technical” reliability engineering is “quantitative”. This implies that the benefits of improvement measures (e.g.: design changes or alternative maintenance strategies) can be quantified in terms of system performance parameters. Refer, for example, Figure 1.
[Read more…]People Forget to be Afraid
“Preventing process accidents requires vigilance. The passing of time without a process accident is not necessarily an indication that all is well and may contribute to a dangerous and growing sense of complacency. When people lose an appreciation of how their safety systems were intended to work, safety systems and controls can deteriorate, lessons can be forgotten, and hazards and deviations from safe operating procedures can be accepted.
[Read more…]Are You a Ghost Leader?
How you lead and support maintenance and reliability improvements may cause it’s failure
Have you ever wondered what some leaders and ghosts have in common? Well, I will get to that, but let me paint you a picture. You have been told to start improving the storeroom, so you start by analyzing the performance, identify gaps and finally develop a plan to make the improvement. You share this improvement plan and business case with the senior leadership of the site. You get a resounding “Let’s do it” across the room. You leave super excited to start the improvement journey. As you start implementing the improvements, you run up against multiple barriers, such as finance not willing to write off obsolete parts or sell them back to the supplier for a discount. The storeroom staff “don’t have time” to assist with the cleanup or the data analysis. Since the storeroom doesn’t directly report to you, you talk to their manager, and the manager says their staff are too busy. You go to discuss the barriers with the project sponsor and leadership team, and they are still behind the project. Yet, they don’t go out and talk to the staff, nor do you hear about the project anywhere in the facility. So where are these leaders? They are a ghost to the project. [Read more…]
Big Difference Between Maintenance Planner and Scheduler
Maintenance Planner and Scheduler are Two Separate Roles. Planning is Always Done Before Scheduling
Planning maintenance work means developing the work breakdown structure activity by activity, including buying parts and services. Scheduling maintenance work means organizing and coordinating resources so a job is done on the agreed date.
A lot of people mistakenly think that maintenance scheduling is maintenance planning. They are not the same. There is a big difference between the two functions. The job description might say Maintenance Planner and Scheduler, but in reality they are two roles. Maintenance Planning needs to be done before you can do maintenance scheduling. One person may be tasked with the maintenance planning and scheduling functions, but each has its own duties and responsibilities.
First comes maintenance planning, and then you do maintenance scheduling. A maintenance work pack must be developed and completed in full first, so that comprehensive scheduling can be done using the work pack.
[Read more…]