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Transient Markov Model of Multiple Failure Modes

Transient Markov Model of Multiple Failure Modes

COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is easy to estimate: CFR=deaths/cases. Regression forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths are easy but complicated by variants and nonlinearity. Epidemiologists use SIR models (Susceptible, Infectious, and “Removed”) to estimate Ro. These are baseball statistics. Reliability people need age-specific reliability and failure-rate function estimates, by failure mode, to diagnose problems, recommend spares, plan maintenance, do risk analyses, etc. Markov models use actuarial transition rates.

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One of the Biggest RCM Misconceptions

One of the Biggest RCM Misconceptions

You must have comprehensive “historical data” in order to carry out Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) (misconception)

Historical data is important for a Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) analysis. But the kind of data that is generally collected isn’t sufficient to answer all the questions in the RCM process – and thereby formulate specific solutions.

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Pugh Analysis and FMEA

Pugh Analysis and FMEA

“Once you make a decision, the universe conspires to make it happen.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

There are times when an FMEA facilitator has difficulty arriving at consensus with the FMEA team. This sometimes happens when there are two or more competing ideas or solutions and members of the team feel strongly about their personal idea or solution. One tool that can be used to solve this problem is called Pugh Analysis, a type of decision matrix.

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Competencies for Future Success and Advantage

Competencies for Future Success and Advantage

Guest Post by Daniel Burrus (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Even as I write this article, jobs in industries ranging from entertainment and media to manufacturing and medicine are being transformed by artificial intelligence (AI) and its many iterations. Many people don’t even know they are already in a competition with AI and that several facets of their job are already being accomplished by a digital application or intelligent machine. Workers will not be able to outpace these machines simply by working longer hours or moving faster on the assembly line.

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Machine Vibration Isolation – Theory and Practice

Machine Vibration Isolation – Theory and Practice

1. Application.

Any engineer with known expertise or responsibilities in the area of ‘vibration’ will be asked sooner or later to advise on a vibration isolation problem. While the principles of vibration isolation are relatively simple to understand the practical application requires some design skills and a good understanding of the vibration source or sources.

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Alkylation Technologies: HF, H2SO4, Or Solid Acid?

Alkylation Technologies: HF, H2SO4, Or Solid Acid?

A few weeks ago, I had written about a recent fire at the alkylation unit in Citgo’s Corpus refinery, and raised the question about HF usage. Today, I would like to further delve into the alternate technologies for alklyation and also take this opportunity to summarize feedback I have received from a few readers: Mike Bordeaux, Sujith Panikkar, Menno van der Hauw, and Fabienne Salimi.

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5 Tips for Improving Preventive Maintenance with EAM/CMMS Software

5 Tips for Improving Preventive Maintenance with EAM/CMMS Software

Any maintenance manager at a manufacturing plant or facility is likely aware of the problems caused by faulty equipment. Even if just one piece of equipment out of thousands breaks down, it could cause your entire operation to come to a halt. Preventive maintenance involves scheduling various maintenance activities to keep your equipment in peak condition and prevent breakdowns and failure. EAM/CMMS software is an essential tool for scheduling preventive maintenance and monitoring performance. The following are 5 tips to improve preventive maintenance with maintenance management software.

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Validation Testing – Right Parts on the Right Tests

Validation Testing – Right Parts on the Right Tests

As you begin design validation (DV) and product validation (PV) testing you are entering the more formal phase of a test program.  Usually, you are working to internal and/or customer test specs with timelines that are critical and little margin for error.  If you’ve conducted adequate design verification testing and given your parts a chance to fail on test exposures that are similar to those your product will see in the field, you have reason to expect to be successful in validation [see previous article outlining accelerated test methods: Expect to Pass Validation].

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Becoming a Risk Manager

Becoming a Risk Manager

Guest Post by Andrew Sheves (first posted on CERM ® RISK INSIGHTS – reposted here with permission)

Becoming a risk manager can seem to be more art than science. There’s not a clear pathway from degree to junior risk manager to senior risk manager to CRO (Chief Risk Officer) in the same way that you can chart the progress from freshly minted CPA (Certified Public Accountant) to head of Ernst & Young. (Financial risk management is the exception here as there is usually a clear path there.)

So why is the risk manager career path fuzzy compared to other professions?

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Testing and Proving Plant Wellness Way Enterprise Asset

Testing and Proving Plant Wellness Way Enterprise Asset

Management at Industrial and Manufacturing Sites

Full of new, powerful solutions, the Plant Wellness Way EAM methodology ensures operations and companies get to world class equipment reliability

Let a Plant Wellness Way EAM System-of-Reliability halve your Annual Maintenance Costs

People investigating the Plant Wellness Way enterprise asset management (PWW EAM) methodology want to know exactly what happens when they use it, especially how the analysis and implementation will be done in their own operation. A PWW EAM System-of-Reliability brings you three massive business advantages:

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Are you managing YOUR most valuable asset properly (or at all)?

Are you managing YOUR most valuable asset properly (or at all)?

The most valuable advice John Moubray ever gave me applies to everyone no matter who you are, what you do, or where you’re from. It took me twenty years, but I finally got it. 

When John gave me this gift, he simply made two statements.

Here they are: I don’t own a television. I won’t allow one in my house.

Simple – yet VERY complex. 

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Is Your Emergency Response Plan Satisfactory?

Is Your Emergency Response Plan Satisfactory?

A chemical facility is mandated to have an emergency response plan by OSHA PSM and EPA RMP. An accident in the plant, a hurricane, and a potential terrorist attack are a few scenarios that mandate emergency response and planning. However, there is a vast difference between having an emergency plan and having a plan that works.

Read the remainder of the article to find out if your facility’s emergency plan is an effective one.

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Can you be Proactive in a Reactive Environment?

Can you be Proactive in a Reactive Environment?

Guest post by Ken Latino

If you are like most people who work in a manufacturing or process plant, you have a plan for your day when you arrive in the morning. As soon as you walk through the gate, you are hit with the equipment failures from the night before. You immediately spring into action to help find parts, drawings, millwrights, fitters and anything else needed to get the equipment repaired as quickly as possible. Once that is underway you are told to compile that urgent report for corporate that is needed immediately. And who can forget the countless meetings that must have your attendance. The next thing you know, it is 7:00 PM and you have done nothing from the plan you had for your day. Sound familiar?

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