The Survivorship Bias Principal
podcast episode with speaker Adam Bahret
In 1942, the US Air Force needed to figure out how to get more bombers home. They were losing them at an atrocious rate. They made a study of where the returning bombers were being hit. It was a great data set. But they should have done better in interpreting that data. Abraham Wald, a mathematician, corrected their assumptions and created the “Survivorship Bias principle.” This principle has changed the way we look at data sets and trends. It is a concept that I apply to field failure data sets regularly—more than once. It has caught evidence of core issues that would have otherwise been missed. [Read more…]