
Expected Value Makes Uncertainty Manageable
Product teams often face decisions where uncertainty meets cost, and the clock is ticking.
- a manager asks for another test
- finance flags the price
- engineering hesitates because confidence is stuck at sixty percent.
- The friction isn’t just about money; it’s about balancing risk, value, and time in a way that serves customers and protects the business.
That’s where expected value shines. It’s a lightweight decision tool that translates probability and impact into a single, comparable figure.
More important, it pairs nicely with a simple three-phase flow (frame it, investigate it, choose it) so your decision is not a hunch, but an informed step tied to evidence and project priorities.


Dianna Deeney
Dianna Deeney
In product development, the “fuzzy front end” of concept development often represents both tremendous opportunity and significant challenge. During this critical phase, teams are tasked with defining problems, understanding customers, and generating solutions—all before any engineering begins.
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